📈 Macro Forecast: June – December 2025
Start Levels (May 30, 2025 — TradingView):
S&P 500: 5,911
Nasdaq 100: 21,340
🎯 Objective
Forecast the most probable market trajectory through year-end 2025 using AI synthesis, scenario modeling, and macro risk signals. See episode: The American Debt Trap: How the 2020s Broke the System, and What Comes Next
📊 Forecast Scenario Table
| Scenario | Description | S&P 500 Target | Nasdaq 100 Target | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull Case | AI boom + soft landing + Fed cut | 6,200–6,300 | 22,500–23,500 | 22.5% |
| Base Case | Sticky CPI + Fed pause + AI resilience | 5,800–5,900 | 21,000–21,500 | 52.5% |
| Bear Case | Re-accel inflation + credit/cyber stress | 5,200–5,500 | 17,500–19,000 | 20% |
| Black Swan | Taiwan war, fiscal collapse, cyber | <5,000 | <17,000 | 5% |
📊 May 2025 Market Performance vs Forecast
| 📈 S&P 500 (SPX) | 📈 Nasdaq 100 (NDX) |
|---|---|
| 📅 Start of May: 5,500 | 📅 Start of May: 18,800 |
| 📊 End of May (June 2): 5,935 | 📊 End of May (June 2): 21,491 |
| 📈 May Return: +7.9% | 📈 May Return: +14.3% |
| 🎯 EV Target (Year-End): +4.4% | 🎯 EV Target (Year-End): +10.2% |
| 🔍 May’s return already exceeds the full-year EV target. Earnings strength or macro resilience may be front-loading gains. | 🔍 Nasdaq surged past the full-year EV in one month, driven by AI optimism — but may invite volatility ahead. |
📊 Macro Forecast – Year-End 2025
Scenario-weighted outlooks for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, starting from May 1, 2025. Forecasts reflect macro conditions, Fed policy, EPS trends, and market sentiment as of the starting date.
📈 S&P 500 (SPX)
Starting Level: 5,604.00
| Scenario | Probability | Target | % Return | EPS | P/E | Macro/Fed Backdrop |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐂 Bull | 20% | 6,600.00 | +17.8% | $275.00 | 24.0 | Inflation at 2%, 75bp Fed cuts to 3.5%, AI/energy EPS +10%. P/E high vs. historical ~20. |
| ⚖️ Base | 50% | 6,007.50 | +7.2% | $267.00 | 22.5 | Inflation at 2.5%, 25bp Fed cut to 4%, tariffs limit margins, EPS +6.8%. |
| 🐻 Bear | 25% | 5,100.00 | -9.0% | $255.00 | 20.0 | Inflation at 3.5%, no Fed cuts, tariffs raise costs, EPS +2%. |
| ☠️ Black Swan | 5% | 4,200.00 | -25.1% | $240.00 | 17.5 | Trade war or geopolitical shock, Fed hikes to 5%, EPS -4%. |
🎯 Expected Value (EV):
- Target: 5,805.00
- % Return: +3.6%
- Implied EPS: $264.25
- Implied P/E: 21.96
💹 Nasdaq 100 (NDX)
Starting Level: 19,834.43
| Scenario | Probability | Target | % Return | EPS | P/E | Macro/Fed Backdrop |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🚀 Bull | 20% | 24,000.00 | +21.0% | $960.00 | 25.0 | AI-driven growth, 2% inflation, 75bp Fed cuts, EPS +20%. EPS growth aggressive. |
| ⚖️ Base | 50% | 21,600.00 | +8.9% | $900.00 | 24.0 | 2.5% inflation, 25bp Fed cut, tariffs disrupt supply chains, EPS +12.5%. |
| 🐻 Bear | 25% | 17,200.00 | -13.3% | $860.00 | 20.0 | 3.5% inflation, no cuts, tech margins compress, EPS +7.5%. |
| ☠️ Black Swan | 5% | 14,000.00 | -29.4% | $800.00 | 17.5 | Tech shock (e.g., Taiwan crisis), 5% inflation, Fed hikes, EPS flat. |
🎯 Expected Value (EV):
- Target: 20,600.00
- % Return: +3.9%
- Implied EPS: $897.00
- Implied P/E: 22.96
⚠️ Forecast based on data as of May 1, 2025. EPS and P/E assumptions reflect modeled outcomes and macro conditions. Bull case assumptions flagged for optimism. Not financial advice.