📊 Macro Forecast – Year-End 2025
Scenario-weighted outlooks for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, starting from May 1, 2025. Forecasts reflect macro conditions, Fed policy, EPS trends, and market sentiment as of the starting date.
📈 S&P 500 (SPX)
Starting Level: 5,604.00
| Scenario | Probability | Target | % Return | EPS | P/E | Macro/Fed Backdrop |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐂 Bull | 20% | 6,600.00 | +17.8% | $275.00 | 24.0 | Inflation at 2%, 75bp Fed cuts to 3.5%, AI/energy EPS +10%. P/E high vs. historical ~20. |
| ⚖️ Base | 50% | 6,007.50 | +7.2% | $267.00 | 22.5 | Inflation at 2.5%, 25bp Fed cut to 4%, tariffs limit margins, EPS +6.8%. |
| 🐻 Bear | 25% | 5,100.00 | -9.0% | $255.00 | 20.0 | Inflation at 3.5%, no Fed cuts, tariffs raise costs, EPS +2%. |
| ☠️ Black Swan | 5% | 4,200.00 | -25.1% | $240.00 | 17.5 | Trade war or geopolitical shock, Fed hikes to 5%, EPS -4%. |
🎯 Expected Value (EV):
- Target: 5,805.00
- % Return: +3.6%
- Implied EPS: $264.25
- Implied P/E: 21.96
💹 Nasdaq 100 (NDX)
Starting Level: 19,834.43
| Scenario | Probability | Target | % Return | EPS | P/E | Macro/Fed Backdrop |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🚀 Bull | 20% | 24,000.00 | +21.0% | $960.00 | 25.0 | AI-driven growth, 2% inflation, 75bp Fed cuts, EPS +20%. EPS growth aggressive. |
| ⚖️ Base | 50% | 21,600.00 | +8.9% | $900.00 | 24.0 | 2.5% inflation, 25bp Fed cut, tariffs disrupt supply chains, EPS +12.5%. |
| 🐻 Bear | 25% | 17,200.00 | -13.3% | $860.00 | 20.0 | 3.5% inflation, no cuts, tech margins compress, EPS +7.5%. |
| ☠️ Black Swan | 5% | 14,000.00 | -29.4% | $800.00 | 17.5 | Tech shock (e.g., Taiwan crisis), 5% inflation, Fed hikes, EPS flat. |
🎯 Expected Value (EV):
- Target: 20,600.00
- % Return: +3.9%
- Implied EPS: $897.00
- Implied P/E: 22.96
⚠️ Forecast based on data as of May 1, 2025. EPS and P/E assumptions reflect modeled outcomes and macro conditions. Bull case assumptions flagged for optimism. Not financial advice.