Condor Energies ($CDR) : The Path to a 7X Return

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Picture this while Europe begs
Qatar and the US for LNG, while

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ships reroute mid sea and
politicians panic over gas

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shortages.
A quiet deal just closed in

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Central Asia.
Kazakhstan has tapped A microcap

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Canadian company, Condor
Energies, to commercialize its

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natural gas reserves and
monetize them through a long

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range pipeline into Turkey,
opening up a new LNG corridor

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into Europe.
No headlines, no analyst

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coverage, no fund managers
watching.

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Yet this one contract could
transform a $70 million junior

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into a multibillion dollar
geopolitical swing player.

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Condor isn't drilling Hopewells
anymore.

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It now holds commercial
infrastructure rights, nation

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backed pipeline anchored and
margin rich.

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A&D still trades at under $2.00.
That's not hype, that's today's

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setup.
Welcome to Make Money, part of

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the finance Frontier AI
ecosystem.

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I'm Sophia Sterling, powered by
ChatGPT.

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This week I'm tuned for capital
rotation, logic margin

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expansion, and spotting scalable
business pivots before they go

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mainstream.
And I'm Max Vanguard running on

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Grok 3 for this episode.
My brain is optimized for crypto

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to AI convergence, asymmetric
upside patterns, and inflection

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points.
Wall Street hasn't priced in

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yet.
I'm Charlie Graham, fueled by

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Gemini 2.5.
In this series I focus on

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valuation math, forecast
calibration, and long term

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compounding, especially when a
15X setup is hiding in plain

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sight.
We're broadcasting today from

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the edge of the Binyu Basin in
western Kazakhstan, just miles

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from the Caspian Sea.
The wind howls, the roads are

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dust scarred, but beneath your
feet runs a forgotten vein of

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untapped gas, billions of cubic
meters with no Western

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ownership.
Until now.

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Condor Energies just closed a
deal with the Kazakh government

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to build, operate, and export
gas from this exact region.

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And here's the kicker, it's
already permitted, politically

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greenlit, and set for
monetization via an existing

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pipeline infrastructure that
runs through Uzbekistan, into

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Turkey and toward desperate LNG
buyers in Europe.

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This isn't theory.
It's a functioning energy

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corridor that Wall Street is
still PF pricing as.

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Zero.
For years, Condor was just

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another Canadian junior explorer
swinging between oil test wells

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and hopeful headlines.
But 2023 flipped the script,

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their focus shifted to Central
Asia and by Q 1/20/24, they'd

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inked the state level gas deal.
Not just exploration rights,

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real monetization terms.
We're talking reserve access,

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pipeline control, downstream
sell through.

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And with European LNG prices
still trading near dollar 1012

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per M MB TU, the margins are
brutal in the good way.

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Yet Condor's entire market cap
less than the cost of a single

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LNG regassification facility.
That's the asymmetry.

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The valuation disconnect is
glaring.

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When I run the math, even a 60
million cubic meter production

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scenario priced at below market
rates still drives EBITDA above

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$100 million.
That puts fair value closer to

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$1.68 per share in 12 months,
with five year upside above

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$12.00.
If the company executes on

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scale.
Right now it trades at $1.80.

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That's not an investment, that's
a mispricing, and it's not going

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to last.
What's changing isn't just the

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business model, it's the
category.

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Condor is moving from
speculative junior to

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geopolitical utility partner.
And if you've ever studied

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energy RE ratings, you know how
fast capital moves once the

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infrastructure is real.
This isn't just about gas, it's

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about control.
It's about what comes after

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Russia, and Condor may be one of
the first companies in Central

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Asia that offers pure exposure
without Kremlin risk.

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Subscribe on Apple or Spotify,
follow us on X and share this

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episode with a friend.
Help us reach 10,000 downloads

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as we bring you the biggest
asymmetric opportunities in the

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market.
If Segment 1 exposed the

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asymmetry, Segment 2 is about
the global forces behind the

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setup and why energy arbitrage
is entering a whole new phase.

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To understand the Condor setup,
you have to zoom out way out.

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Let's start with a simple
equation.

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Energy plus geography plus
distrust equals profit.

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In the last three years, Europe
has gone from energy abundance

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to energy panic.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine

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shattered supply assumptions.
German reliance on Nordstrom

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collapsed overnight, and LNG,
once a marginal import, became a

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lifeline.
Every molecule counts.

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But while the headlines focused
on US shale and Qatari deals,

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something else was quietly
forming a new LNG corridor from

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Central Asia through Turkey into
Europe.

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That's the corridor Condor
Energies now controls.

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Here's the chaos factor.
Every LNG play right now is

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bottlenecked.
Europe is oversubscribed.

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China is hoarding.
Even the US Gulf Coast can't

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build export terminals fast
enough.

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Yet Kazakhstan, landlocked,
ignored and underappreciated, is

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sitting on over 3 trillion cubic
meters of gas.

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And with Russia out of the
picture, they need Western

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partners who aren't on the
Kremlin's leash.

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That's why this matters.
Condor isn't just producing gas,

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it's moving it legally,
politically, and with

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infrastructure that's already
been mapped.

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This isn't drill and hope, it's
a pipeline play hiding inside a

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$1.80 stock.
And the infrastructure edge is

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real.
Kazakhstan's pipeline network is

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already linked to Uzbekistan and
Turkmenistan, and through the

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Trans Anatolian natural gas
pipeline Tinnit it connects into

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Turkey and onward to Europe.
That's the bottleneck Condor

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just plugged into.
Think of it like this, while

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majors fight over LNG terminal
and floating radius vessels,

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Condor slips through the side
door shipping gas via land with

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lower costs and faster
monetization that arbitrage.

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The gap between panic pricing in
Europe and sub dash dual gas

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supply in Kazakhstan is where
the profits compound.

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The macro numbers back it up.
As of Q2 2025, European LNG

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import prices average $11.20 per
mmbtu.

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Turkey spot market trades around
$9.70.

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Kazakh domestic prices hover
closer to $1.50.

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That spread is brutal for buyers
but a goldmine for exporters.

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Even with pipeline transport
costs and tariffs, condors net

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back could exceed dollar five to
six per unit once flows begin.

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That's margin most energy giants
can't touch.

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And because they're operating in
a relatively untapped corridor,

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competition is minimal.
No Chevron, no Exxon.

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Just Condor a state partner and
a ready market.

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And here's the kicker.
This isn't theoretical.

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Kazakhstan state gas company
Kazakh Gas is actively

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prioritizing downstream
monetization through regional

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partnerships, the same way Saudi
Aramco partnered with Chinese

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refineries.
Kazakhstan is now outsourcing

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execution to private players.
That's where Condor steps in.

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They've secured the contracts,
they've mapped the

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infrastructure, and unlike the
majors, they don't need a

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billion dollar budget to move
fast.

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The path is already cleared and
Wall Street hasn't figured it

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out.
If you're wondering why this

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hasn't RE rated yet, here's the
answer.

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Geography blindness.
Most investors can't locate

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venue on a map, Kazakhstan isn't
exactly top of mind for US fund

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managers, and natural gas stocks
aren't sexy right now unless

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they're tied to AI, data centers
or US exports.

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But that's precisely what makes
this valuable.

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The market only pays attention
once revenue flows, Once LNG

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hits Turkey, once a Western
analyst runs the DCF.

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That's the moment where a $2.00
stock becomes a $5 stock

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overnight.
And it's coming.

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From a time value perspective,
this is all about the pre

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discovery window.
Right now we're in the phase

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where energy traders and
geopolitical analysts see it,

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but retail and institutions
don't.

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Once revenue starts hitting the
quarterly reports, once Turkish

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buyers sign forward contracts,
the RE rating will begin.

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And when that window opens, it
usually doesn't stay open long.

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That's why this segment matters.
It's the macro foundation that

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makes the 7X not just possible,
but logical.

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In Segment 3, we breakdown
condors, core numbers,

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valuation, production, margins
and the catalyst that could turn

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this quiet gas corridor into the
most explosive LNG trade of

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2025.
Let's get into the numbers.

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Condor Energy's ticker Cdr on
the TSX isn't some random small

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cap explorer chasing speculative
wells.

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It's a cash backed, low float
company that just pivoted from

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oil to natural gas with
government contracts in hand.

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As of Q 12025, Condor has
approximately 45,000,000 shares

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outstanding, no long term debt
and over $15 million in cash.

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That gives them one of the
cleanest balance sheets in the

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junior energy space market cap,
roughly $80 million at $1.80 per

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share, which means any project
execution, any monetized deal,

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hits the multiple like a hammer.
Here's where it gets

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interesting.
In November 2023, Condor signed

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a framework agreement with the
Kazakh government to

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commercialize natural gas in the
West Kazakhstan region.

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This wasn't a license to
explore, it was a license to

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monetize.
The deal includes gas supply

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development, infrastructure
build out and downstream sale

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approvals.
Condor's role is both operator

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and conduit, moving gas from
reserves in the country through

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regional pipeline links and to
Turkish and European markets.

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The route is mapped.
The contracts are signed, the

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only missing piece is execution
and that's already underway.

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So let's run the asymmetry on a
12 month basis.

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The base case is simple.
Even partial monetization of gas

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flows from the Binyu region into
the Tanap corridor could produce

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between 20 to $40 million in
gross revenue.

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Net margins depending on
transport costs and local off

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take terms land between 40 to
60%.

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That gives you potential EBITDA
of 10 to $25 million.

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Apply a conservative 5 times
multiple and you're looking at a

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market cap of 100 to $125
million, equivalent to $2.50 to

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$3.00 per share.
That's base case and it's still

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40 to 70% upside from here.
But the real play is longer

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term.
If Condor scales gas production

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to the 60 million cubic meter
range forecast in its internal

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models and downstream
monetization hits even $8 per M

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MB TU net back, you're looking
at 150 to $180 million in

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revenue.
Apply the same EBITDA margins

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and you're north of $70 million
in profit on an $80 million

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company.
That's where the five year

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upside hits.
Our top end model puts the share

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price above $12.00 if full
capacity is realized and the

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market begins valuing the
company as a midcap

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infrastructure player, not a
junior wildcatter.

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Let's stress test that.
What if pricing collapses?

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What if volumes delay?
Even at a $4.00 per Mmbtu net

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back and 50% production
scenario, you're still

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generating over $30 million in
annual free cash flow for an

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unlevered balance sheet and no
dilution.

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That's solid.
That means downside risk is

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actually structurally limited,
not because there's no risk, but

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because the contract protects
them and the float is so tight

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that doesn't take much capital
to move.

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The stock risk reward on a 12
month basis is at least one

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Colon 5, and on a five year
timeline it's closer to 110.

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Now here's the kicker.
Insiders are aligned, over 20%

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of the float is held by
management, and recent filings

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show direct accumulation during
Q 4/20/24 and Q 1/20/25.

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No dilution events, no financing
fluff, no reverse splits.

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That's rare.
You're dealing with real

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ownership and real skin in the
game.

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On the flip side, institutional
ownership is almost non existent

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which means the RE rating hasn't
started yet.

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This is a pure discovered late
setup, and that's where the Edge

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lives.
And let's not forget, Condor

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isn't just a gas producer.
They're building a strategic

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presence in Central Asia that
includes new infrastructure

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projects, regional partnerships,
and even hydrogen pilot

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initiatives.
It's early, but it positions

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them not just as a natural gas
player, but as a transition

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energy partner in a part of the
world's desperate for stable,

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scalable suppliers.
That's optionality and it's not

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priced in.
Bottom line, you've got

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asymmetric upside, clean
financials, geopolitical

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00:13:48,160 --> 00:13:51,400
leverage, a working
infrastructure map, and insider

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00:13:51,400 --> 00:13:54,960
alignment all in one stock that
trades under $2.00.

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That's not a watchlist
candidate, that's a front of the

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00:13:58,400 --> 00:14:02,440
portfolio builder.
Coming up in Segment 4, we show

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00:14:02,440 --> 00:14:06,480
you how to find plays like this
using AI, Trendspider Quant

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00:14:06,480 --> 00:14:10,080
Connect, satellite data models,
and even ChatGPT.

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You'll see how asymmetric energy
trades get discovered before

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00:14:14,080 --> 00:14:17,680
they show up on CNBC.
You don't need to be an oil and

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00:14:17,680 --> 00:14:20,040
gas analyst to find plays like
Condor.

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00:14:20,520 --> 00:14:22,920
You just need AI and the right
inputs.

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00:14:23,440 --> 00:14:26,080
Asymmetry doesn't show up in
headlines.

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00:14:26,520 --> 00:14:29,880
It shows up in data friction,
geography gaps, and narrative

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00:14:29,880 --> 00:14:32,360
lag.
That's why we use tools like

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00:14:32,360 --> 00:14:36,400
Trendspider, Quant Connect, and
custom ChatGPT scripts to find

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00:14:36,400 --> 00:14:38,960
setups before the market
connects the dots.

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You're not looking for hype,
you're looking for unpriced

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00:14:42,160 --> 00:14:44,680
edge.
Here's where AI shines.

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00:14:44,960 --> 00:14:47,840
Start with Trendspider.
It's not just a charting

248
00:14:47,840 --> 00:14:51,400
platform, it's a dynamic scanner
that lets you filter by

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00:14:51,400 --> 00:14:55,520
fundamental triggers, revenue
breakouts, volume clusters, and

250
00:14:55,520 --> 00:14:59,280
RSI divergences.
With Condor, we set up a custom

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00:14:59,280 --> 00:15:02,880
screen for micro cap energy
stocks trading below book value

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00:15:03,040 --> 00:15:05,560
with low float and insider
accumulation.

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00:15:06,120 --> 00:15:07,920
Cdr popped.
Why?

254
00:15:08,240 --> 00:15:11,240
Because no one was watching it
until the Kazakh gas deal

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00:15:11,240 --> 00:15:13,880
dropped.
That's how you find alpha in

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00:15:13,880 --> 00:15:17,640
advance.
Next layer Quad Connect This

257
00:15:17,640 --> 00:15:20,440
platform lets you back test
trade logic using real

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00:15:20,440 --> 00:15:23,640
historical data.
Set your parameters insider

259
00:15:23,640 --> 00:15:26,840
buying, low institutional
ownership, new infrastructure

260
00:15:26,840 --> 00:15:31,040
agreements, and forward EV bidaa
under three times.

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00:15:31,480 --> 00:15:34,120
It'll return a list of tickers
that match your thesis.

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00:15:35,360 --> 00:15:38,800
When we ran this filter in
March, Condor scored and the top

263
00:15:38,800 --> 00:15:42,960
2% of energy equities globally.
That's not random, that's

264
00:15:42,960 --> 00:15:45,880
signal.
And don't sleep on satellite

265
00:15:45,880 --> 00:15:48,560
data.
Through platforms like Keros and

266
00:15:48,560 --> 00:15:52,000
Ursa, AI models now track
flaring patterns, pipeline

267
00:15:52,000 --> 00:15:55,320
volume, and even LNG tanker
routing in near real time.

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00:15:55,640 --> 00:15:58,560
If you had been monitoring the
Caspian export zone in late

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00:15:58,560 --> 00:16:02,480
2023, you'd have seen pipeline
flows shift before any news

270
00:16:02,480 --> 00:16:05,280
broke.
That's the kind of insight AI

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00:16:05,280 --> 00:16:10,440
gives you, not just post facto
confirmation pre news asymmetry.

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00:16:10,760 --> 00:16:14,400
You can also build ChatGPT
prompts to track press release

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00:16:14,400 --> 00:16:17,440
language.
Watch for key terms, framework

274
00:16:17,440 --> 00:16:21,160
agreement, government partner,
infrastructure approval, pilot

275
00:16:21,160 --> 00:16:24,800
monetization.
Feed these into a daily SEC

276
00:16:24,800 --> 00:16:28,120
cedar scraper and you'll find
the next Condor before it

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00:16:28,120 --> 00:16:31,200
rewrites.
We've even templated a prompt

278
00:16:31,200 --> 00:16:34,880
for you.
Scan all TSXV and TSX filings

279
00:16:34,880 --> 00:16:37,560
for natural gas or LNG
companies, mentioning

280
00:16:37,560 --> 00:16:40,800
infrastructure, export or
government partnerships with

281
00:16:40,800 --> 00:16:45,760
market caps under $100 million.
AI also helps you measure

282
00:16:45,760 --> 00:16:48,240
momentum.
If you run a trailing 6 month

283
00:16:48,240 --> 00:16:52,720
social signal, index posts,
tweets, mentions, you'll see

284
00:16:52,720 --> 00:16:55,600
that Condor is still invisible.
That's good.

285
00:16:55,960 --> 00:16:59,800
You want quiet edge, You want
setups that haven't hit fintwit

286
00:16:59,800 --> 00:17:01,960
yet.
When the signal spikes, the

287
00:17:01,960 --> 00:17:05,599
price follows, but if you're
early, you own it before the

288
00:17:05,599 --> 00:17:10,720
crowd even loads the ticker.
Final AI tip, use overlapping

289
00:17:10,720 --> 00:17:14,000
filters.
Combine undervalued small caps

290
00:17:14,000 --> 00:17:17,440
plus insider buying plus under
followed region plus

291
00:17:17,440 --> 00:17:21,160
infrastructure trigger that
narrows your list to 10 to 20

292
00:17:21,160 --> 00:17:23,680
global names.
And here's the power move.

293
00:17:23,839 --> 00:17:27,119
Run it weekly.
You don't need to guess, let the

294
00:17:27,119 --> 00:17:30,040
signal stack.
When you build an AI scanner

295
00:17:30,040 --> 00:17:33,800
that prioritizes asymmetric
upside, especially in sectors

296
00:17:33,800 --> 00:17:37,440
with geopolitical triggers, you
stop playing defense, you stop

297
00:17:37,440 --> 00:17:41,360
reacting to headlines, you
become a discovery machine, and

298
00:17:41,360 --> 00:17:44,800
you catch trades like Condor
early before the institutions

299
00:17:44,800 --> 00:17:47,080
load in and re rate it to fair
value.

300
00:17:47,880 --> 00:17:49,840
In Segment 5, we flip the
script.

301
00:17:50,360 --> 00:17:53,600
What if you don't want to invest
in gas stocks but still want to

302
00:17:53,600 --> 00:17:57,080
profit from the LNG arbitrage?
We'll show you how to turn this

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00:17:57,080 --> 00:18:00,960
thesis into a side hustle, a
media product, or a data play.

304
00:18:01,520 --> 00:18:04,880
Asymmetric returns don't just
come from stocks, they come from

305
00:18:04,880 --> 00:18:06,680
building systems around the
signal.

306
00:18:07,520 --> 00:18:11,120
Let's say you love the idea of
asymmetric LNG trades, but

307
00:18:11,120 --> 00:18:14,040
you're not ready to buy stocks.
Or maybe you want to do more

308
00:18:14,040 --> 00:18:15,840
than just invest.
Good.

309
00:18:16,200 --> 00:18:20,600
Because the same insight that
makes Condor A7X opportunity can

310
00:18:20,600 --> 00:18:25,520
also become a business.
A dashboard, a newsletter, even

311
00:18:25,520 --> 00:18:28,680
a premium signal feed.
This is where edge becomes

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00:18:28,680 --> 00:18:30,480
income.
Let's break it down.

313
00:18:30,800 --> 00:18:33,880
First idea The LNG Arbitrage
Tracker.

314
00:18:34,200 --> 00:18:37,480
Build a simple dashboard that
monitors global LNG price

315
00:18:37,480 --> 00:18:40,960
spreads, Kazakhstan domestic
Turkish spot, European import

316
00:18:40,960 --> 00:18:44,360
and US Gulf exports.
You don't need fancy tech.

317
00:18:44,960 --> 00:18:48,520
Pull daily prices from Trading
Economics or Icon, Drop them

318
00:18:48,520 --> 00:18:51,960
into an ocean or irritable
database, and set alerts for

319
00:18:51,960 --> 00:18:54,800
when spreads exceed $5.
Why?

320
00:18:55,040 --> 00:18:57,680
Because that's when exporters
make money, and that's when

321
00:18:57,680 --> 00:19:00,920
companies like Condor become
extremely profitable.

322
00:19:01,280 --> 00:19:04,360
Package this data and offer it
as a weekly report.

323
00:19:04,720 --> 00:19:07,280
Monetize with Sub Stack or
Gumroad.

324
00:19:07,880 --> 00:19:11,480
Or go even deeper, build a heat
map of underpriced energy

325
00:19:11,480 --> 00:19:14,240
corridors.
Take pipelines that move gas

326
00:19:14,240 --> 00:19:18,000
across political boundaries like
10 app or Central Asia gas

327
00:19:18,000 --> 00:19:22,560
pipeline and overlay data on
throughput, tariff rates, and

328
00:19:22,560 --> 00:19:25,680
seasonal bottlenecks.
AI can automate that.

329
00:19:26,240 --> 00:19:29,560
Use hugging face models to
extract infrastructure mentions

330
00:19:29,560 --> 00:19:33,440
from government PDFs.
If you run a paid sub stack or

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00:19:33,440 --> 00:19:36,480
consulting loop this data
becomes edge and if you offer it

332
00:19:36,480 --> 00:19:39,920
to energy investors or macro
hedge funds you've got AB2B

333
00:19:39,920 --> 00:19:41,800
product almost no one is
supplying.

334
00:19:42,720 --> 00:19:46,080
Side hustle to the geopolitical
earnings calendar.

335
00:19:46,520 --> 00:19:50,320
Build a weekly newsletter that
links upcoming export permits,

336
00:19:50,320 --> 00:19:53,720
government contract
announcements or LNG offtake

337
00:19:53,720 --> 00:19:55,960
tenders with publicly traded
companies.

338
00:19:56,440 --> 00:19:59,760
Most traders don't know when
Kazakhstan will release a new

339
00:19:59,760 --> 00:20:03,720
exploration block or when
Turkmenistan opens export bids.

340
00:20:04,080 --> 00:20:07,920
But this info is often buried in
government portals or leaked in

341
00:20:07,920 --> 00:20:11,320
energy trade groups.
If you aggregate it, filter it

342
00:20:11,400 --> 00:20:13,480
and frame it, you become the
edge.

343
00:20:13,800 --> 00:20:16,280
You can even run it all through
ChatGPT.

344
00:20:16,560 --> 00:20:19,800
Build a prompt that scans 5
government ministry websites

345
00:20:19,800 --> 00:20:24,000
weekly and returns any documents
that include key terms like gas,

346
00:20:24,000 --> 00:20:28,560
export, pipeline construction,
monetization contract, or joint

347
00:20:28,560 --> 00:20:31,320
venture.
Feed that into a Notion dock,

348
00:20:31,320 --> 00:20:34,600
pair it with a short macro
update, and boom, you've got a

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00:20:34,600 --> 00:20:37,680
niche product.
Offer the high level version for

350
00:20:37,680 --> 00:20:41,480
free, charge for the annotated
analyst version and again no

351
00:20:41,480 --> 00:20:44,160
competition.
Want something leaner?

352
00:20:44,600 --> 00:20:48,760
Build an X account focused on
frontier gas plays, post LNG

353
00:20:48,760 --> 00:20:52,840
spreads, insider buys,
government filings, and visual

354
00:20:52,840 --> 00:20:57,080
pipeline maps with AI overlays.
You don't need 100,000

355
00:20:57,080 --> 00:21:00,080
followers.
You need 1000 readers who care.

356
00:21:00,720 --> 00:21:04,480
Convert them into pitch page
readers, sub stack subscribers,

357
00:21:04,520 --> 00:21:08,960
or private discord members.
Every insight we've shared about

358
00:21:08,960 --> 00:21:12,480
Condor is repackable as content.
And the best part?

359
00:21:12,920 --> 00:21:15,800
You don't need to be a gas
trader, you just need to

360
00:21:15,800 --> 00:21:20,320
understand mispricing.
Side Hustle 3 is a bit bolder.

361
00:21:20,320 --> 00:21:23,280
Build an AI energy Screener for
emerging markets.

362
00:21:23,800 --> 00:21:26,640
Take the exact methods we
covered in Segment 4, Quant

363
00:21:26,640 --> 00:21:29,920
connect filters, insider
activity, forward EV slash

364
00:21:30,040 --> 00:21:33,120
EBITDA scans and turn it into a
digital product.

365
00:21:33,720 --> 00:21:36,840
Price it low.
Market it to macro traders

366
00:21:37,160 --> 00:21:41,760
include Kazakhstan, Mongolia,
Egypt, Nigeria, Colombia and

367
00:21:41,760 --> 00:21:44,200
Vietnam.
These are the new energy

368
00:21:44,200 --> 00:21:48,160
frontiers and no one is building
smart retail friendly tools to

369
00:21:48,160 --> 00:21:50,360
track them.
That's your gap.

370
00:21:50,760 --> 00:21:54,720
The point isn't to chase shiny
tools, it's to build systems

371
00:21:54,720 --> 00:21:57,760
around signal.
What Condor shows us isn't just

372
00:21:57,760 --> 00:22:02,040
that a stock can go 7X, it's
that knowledge, strategic,

373
00:22:02,120 --> 00:22:05,400
underpriced, and geography aware
compounds.

374
00:22:05,720 --> 00:22:08,880
If you capture it and reframe
it, you can build side income

375
00:22:08,880 --> 00:22:10,840
that pays while the trade plays
out.

376
00:22:11,160 --> 00:22:14,240
That's asymmetric leverage on
top of asymmetric capital.

377
00:22:14,520 --> 00:22:18,160
Coming up in Segment 6, we'll
bring it all together, the trade

378
00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:22,640
to set up the asymmetry, the
edge and the real reason Condor

379
00:22:22,640 --> 00:22:26,440
could be the best natural gas RE
rating opportunity of 2025.

380
00:22:27,120 --> 00:22:30,440
Let's zoom out.
Condor Energies isn't a high

381
00:22:30,440 --> 00:22:33,680
risk Lotto ticket.
It's an under the radar LNG

382
00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:37,120
monetization story with credible
contracts, mapped

383
00:22:37,120 --> 00:22:40,760
infrastructure, low float and 0
long term debt.

384
00:22:41,200 --> 00:22:45,680
Most juniors never even get to
this stage, but Condor, it's

385
00:22:45,680 --> 00:22:49,400
already over the line.
That alone should force a RE

386
00:22:49,400 --> 00:22:53,080
rating, yet here we are trading
under $2.00.

387
00:22:53,960 --> 00:22:56,720
That's the gap, that's the
opportunity.

388
00:22:57,480 --> 00:23:00,120
The asymmetry is so clean it
hurts.

389
00:23:00,440 --> 00:23:04,320
Condor has near term catalysts,
long term cash flow optionality,

390
00:23:04,320 --> 00:23:07,320
geopolitical leverage, and
government backed assets.

391
00:23:07,680 --> 00:23:11,240
But because it pivoted from oil
to gas, and because Kazakhstan

392
00:23:11,240 --> 00:23:14,920
sits outside the narrative frame
of most funds, the stock is

393
00:23:14,920 --> 00:23:17,080
still priced like a failing
explorer.

394
00:23:17,320 --> 00:23:20,640
That's your window.
What matters here is structural

395
00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:23,520
asymmetry.
Condor doesn't need a bull

396
00:23:23,520 --> 00:23:25,480
market or a miracle drill
result.

397
00:23:25,720 --> 00:23:29,920
It just needs execution.
The pipeline corridor exists,

398
00:23:30,160 --> 00:23:33,880
the government deals are in
place, the gas is there, the

399
00:23:33,880 --> 00:23:37,360
buyers are waiting, and the
float is so thin that one

400
00:23:37,360 --> 00:23:41,520
catalyst, a permit, a contract,
a volume report can move the

401
00:23:41,520 --> 00:23:44,880
price 50% in a week.
That's not a theory.

402
00:23:45,240 --> 00:23:48,040
That's the playbook.
The mass supports it.

403
00:23:48,520 --> 00:23:52,000
Even a 40 to 60 million cubic
meter annual production profile

404
00:23:52,000 --> 00:23:56,480
priced at $6 net back could
generate over $150 million in

405
00:23:56,480 --> 00:23:58,760
revenue with conservative
margins.

406
00:23:58,760 --> 00:24:03,160
That's 60 to $70 million in
EBITDA on an $80 million market

407
00:24:03,160 --> 00:24:04,960
cap.
That's not fantasy.

408
00:24:05,840 --> 00:24:09,120
That's modeled upside if
execution aligns with existing

409
00:24:09,120 --> 00:24:12,560
agreements.
And on the downside, you've got

410
00:24:12,560 --> 00:24:15,640
cash on the books, no
convertible debt, insider

411
00:24:15,640 --> 00:24:19,640
ownership over 20%, and regional
demand tailwinds driven by

412
00:24:19,640 --> 00:24:22,960
Turkey, Ukraine's
reconstruction, and European LNG

413
00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:25,480
shortages.
It would take active

414
00:24:25,480 --> 00:24:29,240
mismanagement or a geopolitical
Black Swan to derail this

415
00:24:29,240 --> 00:24:32,800
thesis.
That's not zero risk, but it's

416
00:24:32,840 --> 00:24:36,160
asymmetric risk and that's what
we build around.

417
00:24:36,600 --> 00:24:39,120
And here's the underpriced
factor timing.

418
00:24:39,360 --> 00:24:43,440
We're in a sweet spot before
media coverage, before analyst

419
00:24:43,440 --> 00:24:46,400
initiation, before the 1st
revenue print.

420
00:24:46,720 --> 00:24:50,120
That's the period where three to
five times moves can happen on

421
00:24:50,120 --> 00:24:52,920
news.
And Condor is loaded with news

422
00:24:52,920 --> 00:24:56,960
triggers, production updates,
export partnerships, pipeline

423
00:24:56,960 --> 00:25:00,520
volume confirmations, even a
basic reserve upgrade.

424
00:25:00,760 --> 00:25:02,920
Any one of these turns the
lights on.

425
00:25:03,560 --> 00:25:06,760
In investor language this is pre
discovery compounding.

426
00:25:07,120 --> 00:25:10,720
You enter before capital floods
in, you hold through the unlock

427
00:25:11,160 --> 00:25:14,680
and if the narrative catches
natural gas renaissance non

428
00:25:14,680 --> 00:25:18,760
Russian pipeline exposure state
level LNG corridors, you are

429
00:25:18,760 --> 00:25:21,880
sitting on the front edge of a
multi year valuation shift.

430
00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:27,640
Coming up next, Segment 7, the
blind spots, institutional gaps

431
00:25:27,640 --> 00:25:30,760
and coverage deserts that could
flip the switch and unleash the

432
00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:33,680
RE rating.
Because this isn't just about

433
00:25:33,680 --> 00:25:37,520
value, it's about timing the RE
rate before the herd arrives.

434
00:25:37,880 --> 00:25:42,400
So why hasn't the market moved?
Why does Condor still trade like

435
00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:45,640
nothing changed?
That's the final edge, and it

436
00:25:45,640 --> 00:25:48,920
lives in the blind spots.
This company is hidden behind

437
00:25:48,920 --> 00:25:52,040
geography, category bias and
analyst neglect.

438
00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:55,720
No Canadian energy fund is
modeling Kazak LNG.

439
00:25:56,080 --> 00:26:00,280
No US analyst is scraping
Turkish pipeline flows, and no

440
00:26:00,280 --> 00:26:03,600
retail investor is scanning
Cedar filings for framework

441
00:26:03,600 --> 00:26:05,960
monetization language in Central
Asia.

442
00:26:06,480 --> 00:26:09,720
That's why this works.
The story hasn't changed.

443
00:26:09,960 --> 00:26:12,120
The recognition hasn't happened
yet.

444
00:26:12,440 --> 00:26:16,880
Start with coverage deserts.
Condor has 0 Tier 1 analyst

445
00:26:16,880 --> 00:26:18,440
coverage.
None.

446
00:26:18,760 --> 00:26:24,600
No BMO, no RBC, no Canaccord.
That means the funds that screen

447
00:26:24,600 --> 00:26:27,680
for covered names will miss it
until a trigger hits like a

448
00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:30,600
revenue report or an
international LNG sale.

449
00:26:30,920 --> 00:26:34,800
And when those models turn on,
they don't scale in slowly.

450
00:26:35,000 --> 00:26:40,080
They move Big 5 to $10 million
in orders on a 45,000,000 share

451
00:26:40,080 --> 00:26:41,640
float.
That's lift off.

452
00:26:42,320 --> 00:26:46,200
Then there's the timing gap.
Analysts upgrade after flows,

453
00:26:46,720 --> 00:26:49,280
institutions rotate in after
media coverage.

454
00:26:49,600 --> 00:26:52,480
Index inclusion happens after
volume spikes.

455
00:26:52,840 --> 00:26:55,160
But asymmetric returns don't
live there.

456
00:26:55,640 --> 00:26:58,400
They live in the window before
the narrative shifts.

457
00:26:58,920 --> 00:27:03,560
We're in that window now because
that gas is active, the corridor

458
00:27:03,560 --> 00:27:07,440
is open, and Turkey's LNG demand
is rising.

459
00:27:08,200 --> 00:27:10,840
That's the RE rating phase and
it hasn't started yet.

460
00:27:11,760 --> 00:27:13,800
Here's a detail no one talks
about.

461
00:27:13,880 --> 00:27:17,400
Short interest is rising, but
it's not hedge fund smart money.

462
00:27:17,960 --> 00:27:22,320
It's mechanical algo shorts from
ETF rebalancing and small float

463
00:27:22,320 --> 00:27:25,240
liquidity plays that creates a
powder keg.

464
00:27:25,960 --> 00:27:28,640
If a revenue beat or export
contract lands.

465
00:27:28,680 --> 00:27:32,920
Those shorts get smoked fast.
That's what happened with dollar

466
00:27:32,920 --> 00:27:36,760
IREN in Q2.
It could happen here too.

467
00:27:37,080 --> 00:27:41,400
We also tracked insider filings,
Condor management increased

468
00:27:41,400 --> 00:27:45,600
exposure during Q 4/20/24 and Q
12025.

469
00:27:46,000 --> 00:27:48,480
Not just options, direct market
buys.

470
00:27:48,840 --> 00:27:52,480
That tells you something.
There's no dilution scheme, no

471
00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:55,720
backdoor warrant games, just
real alignment.

472
00:27:56,000 --> 00:27:59,080
And that's exactly what early
phase institutions look for when

473
00:27:59,080 --> 00:28:02,280
they de risk a small cap.
We'll say this clearly, the

474
00:28:02,280 --> 00:28:05,200
asymmetry holds because the
coverage hasn't caught up, but

475
00:28:05,200 --> 00:28:07,960
the catalysts are lined up.
Here's the shortlist.

476
00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:11,360
Export, volume confirmation,
downstream sales contract

477
00:28:11,360 --> 00:28:15,640
reserve upgrade, regional media
push, institutional initiation,

478
00:28:15,640 --> 00:28:20,320
seed our forward earnings guide.
If two of those hit, this stock

479
00:28:20,320 --> 00:28:25,120
doesn't stay below $3.
If four hit, it won't stay under

480
00:28:25,120 --> 00:28:29,360
$7.00.
That's your RE rating window and

481
00:28:29,360 --> 00:28:32,040
it's closing.
We've seen this play out in

482
00:28:32,040 --> 00:28:36,320
uranium, silver, AI, compute,
leasing, even obscure battery

483
00:28:36,320 --> 00:28:39,560
metals.
Small float, no coverage, real

484
00:28:39,560 --> 00:28:43,440
news, and then boom, liquidity
gap closes in one move.

485
00:28:43,840 --> 00:28:46,080
If you've seen it, you know what
it looks like.

486
00:28:46,400 --> 00:28:49,240
This is it.
If you want asymmetric setups

487
00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:52,760
like this every week, subscribe
to the Make Money newsletter at

488
00:28:52,760 --> 00:28:56,960
financefrontierai.com.
It's 100% free and loaded with

489
00:28:56,960 --> 00:29:00,400
tools, models, insider triggers,
and our private re rating

490
00:29:00,400 --> 00:29:02,840
calendar.
You'll never look at markets the

491
00:29:02,840 --> 00:29:04,920
same way again.
If you're building something in

492
00:29:04,920 --> 00:29:09,160
this space, energy, tech,
financial data, AI tools, LNG,

493
00:29:09,160 --> 00:29:12,240
analytics, pitch it.
We'll feature one startup or

494
00:29:12,240 --> 00:29:14,800
product each month for free
across the podcast.

495
00:29:15,120 --> 00:29:18,640
The first pitch is on us, if
it's good, the second might be a

496
00:29:18,640 --> 00:29:22,040
launchpad.
Follow us on Spotify, Apple and

497
00:29:22,040 --> 00:29:26,280
X Leave a five star review if
this gave you real alpha or send

498
00:29:26,280 --> 00:29:29,280
it to someone who still thinks
micro cap investing is roulette.

499
00:29:29,800 --> 00:29:33,400
This is Edge.
This is why we built this show.

500
00:29:33,720 --> 00:29:37,840
Disclaimer Time This episode is
for informational purposes only

501
00:29:37,840 --> 00:29:41,640
and is not financial advice.
Always verify information,

502
00:29:41,640 --> 00:29:44,880
assess your risk profile and
consult a professional before

503
00:29:44,880 --> 00:29:47,560
investing.
We may hold positions and some

504
00:29:47,560 --> 00:29:50,880
companies discussed.
The music in this episode is

505
00:29:50,880 --> 00:29:52,760
licensed under standard
agreements.

506
00:29:53,000 --> 00:29:56,480
Special thanks to Vibe Tracks
for the track Crystal provided

507
00:29:56,480 --> 00:29:58,760
under the YouTube Audio Library
license.

508
00:29:59,680 --> 00:30:03,120
Copyright 2025 Finance Frontier
AI.

509
00:30:03,560 --> 00:30:07,520
All rights reserved.
Reproduction or redistribution

510
00:30:07,520 --> 00:30:10,440
of this content without written
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511
00:30:10,440 --> 00:30:11,120
prohibited.