MedX Holdings, Inc. ($MEDH) - Path to an 70X Return

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Picture this, a micro cap
trading at 0.00009.

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No hype, no volume spike, just a
company quietly trying to

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survive.
Today we are not pitching a

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stock, we are dissecting a
question.

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What would have to be true for
Medics Holdings to ever justify

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a 70 times outcome?
This is a make money case study

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in asymmetry.
Most.

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People here 70 times and they
shut their brain off.

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That is the wrong reaction.
The right reaction is to ask

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what structure would have to
change.

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Not price, not sentiment.
Structure.

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Because if structure does not
change, this goes to zero and

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stays there.
And before we go any further,

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let us be clear.
This is not a prediction.

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This is not a recommendation.
Micro caps fail all the time.

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Illiquidity is real.
Dilution is real.

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Opportunity cost is real.
The only reason to study this is

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to sharpen how you think about
asymmetric risk.

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Exactly.
In this episode, success does

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not need to happen for the
episode to be valid.

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Failure does not invalidate the
work.

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We are stress testing a
framework.

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We are asking what must happen
in the next 12 months and over

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five years for a fragile
business to become a small but

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durable platform.
And we will be explicit about

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sizing this Love's at 1%, not
more.

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You earn the right to scale only
if execution proves itself.

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If you are looking for comfort,
this is the wrong episode.

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If you were looking for clarity,
stay with us.

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I am joining from Austin.
I have spent the week reviewing

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failure paths in franchised
retail and cannabis adjacent

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businesses.
Most do not break because of one

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big mistake.
They break because small

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promises quietly stop
compounding.

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That is what I'll be watching
for today.

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I am in New York.
I've been working on asymmetric

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allocation math and how right
tail outcomes distort intuition.

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This episode is about slowing
that intuition down.

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I am in San Francisco.
I've been mapping where markets

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miss price survival.
Sometimes that mispricing

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creates opportunity, Most of the
time it creates traps.

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Let us figure out which this
could be.

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Subscribe on Apple or Spotify,
follow us on X and share this

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episode with a friend.
Help us reach 10,000 downloads.

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Help us keep the AI Frontier AI
series in business.

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Let us ground this in reality.
Medics Holdings trades around

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0.0009 today.
The company reported strong Q3

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momentum in 2025 with revenue
growth, positive operating

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income and expanding franchise
commitments.

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Those are facts, not opinions.
And context matters.

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This is not a blank shell.
There are real stores, real

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customers and real regulatory
exposure.

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The core asset is the Lazydays
Plus coffee shop concept paired

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with a franchise model and an
internal technology stack that

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management believes can scale.
But scale is the keyword.

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At roughly 1.5 million in
projected full year revenue,

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this is still a survival stage
business.

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Positive operating income is
encouraging, but it is fragile.

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One delay 1.
Cost overrun 1.

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Regulatory issue can reverse it
quickly.

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The business model has three
layers.

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First, company owned and
franchised Lazydays locations.

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Second, franchise fees and
royalties as the footprint

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grows.
Third, technology and services

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including the leaf track, point
of sale platform and smart brand

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digital support.
The idea is diversification

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inside a single ecosystem.
This is where many listeners get

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confused.
They hear cannabis and think

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commodity retail.
That is not the ambition here.

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The ambition is hospitality plus
compliance plus software.

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If that stack works together,
margins and repeatability

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improve.
If it does not, complexity

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becomes a liability.
I want to underline that last

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point.
Multiple business lines do not

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automatically reduce risk, they
often increase execution risk.

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The question is not whether Leaf
Trac exists, it is whether third

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parties will pay for it and
whether it works outside the

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founders own stores.
Recent disclosures point to five

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new franchise agreements across
Texas, Maryland and a flagship

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location planned for Las Vegas.
These are commitments, not

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revenue, Yet they matter only if
they open on time and operate as

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designed.
So today what exists is simple,

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A micro cap that has stabilized
operations, found early

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traction, and is attempting to
move from survival to

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validation.
Everything beyond that is

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optionality.
And optionality cuts both ways.

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The upside is large only because
the base is small and the odds

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are low.
That is the mental frame we need

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before we go any further.
Before anyone talks about a 70

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times outcome, we have to pass a
much harder test.

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Survival.
This segment is about one

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question only.
What must happen in the next 12

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months for this thesis to remain
alive at all?

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Not thrive.
Not rewrite.

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Simply stay alive.
I want to frame this as a gate.

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Most micro caps never pass it.
Out of 100 setups like this, the

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majority fail right here.
So the right way to think about

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the next year is not upside, it
is whether MEDH can clear 3

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survival conditions without
cheating the capital structure.

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Let me make that concrete
Condition one is operating

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reality.
The company reported operating

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profitability in Q32025 over the
next 12 months.

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That must repeat.
Not one good quarter, multiple

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clean quarters where revenue
covers operating costs without

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emergency financing.
If that breaks, dilution usually

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follows and the thesis weakens
fast.

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And this is where a lot of
investors fool themselves.

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Survival profitability is
different from growth

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profitability.
A single quarter can be a

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counting noise.
What matters is consistency.

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Same pattern, same margins, same
discipline.

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If they need the market to keep
the lights on, the option

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decays.
Condition 2 is conversion.

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Signed franchise agreements must
turn into open locations.

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Houston, Maryland, Vegas.
Paper deals do not count, Cash

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flowing stores do.
This is where repeatability gets

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tested.
If opening slip again and again,

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the model is not ready for
scale.

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This is critical.
The market has seen endless

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press releases about pipelines.
It only reprices when units open

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on time and behave similarly.
If every location is a special

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case, this is not a system.
And without a system, there is

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no right tail.
And there is a quiet risk here.

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Variation.
If some stores work and others

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struggle badly, that tells you
the model is fragile.

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A franchise system only works
when average operators can

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succeed, not just exceptional
ones.

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Condition 3 is platform proof.
The software must move from

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internal use to external
revenue, even small, even early.

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What matters is proof that
someone outside the company is

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willing to pay for it.
Without that, this remains a

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retail story, not a platform
story.

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If all three happen, survival
odds improve materially.

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Not success survival.
The company earns time.

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If even one fails, especially
through dilution or delayed

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filings, the probability curve
shifts sharply against

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shareholders.
And This is why we call this a

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gate.
You do not argue your way

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through it.
You either pass it or you do

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not.
That is the lens for the next 12

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months.
Not hope, not narrative

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structure.
Pass the survival gate and only

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then does the long term
conversation begin.

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Here's the real problem for
investors.

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In micro caps, almost everything
looks like a signal.

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Press releases, new locations,
social posts.

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But most of it is noise.
So the question is simple, what

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actually matters?
I will frame it this way.

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Signals reduce uncertainty,
Noise increases excitement

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without reducing risk.
For MEDHA, real signal is boring

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consistency, same store
economics, predictable margins

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on time filings.
And that boredom is

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uncomfortable.
People want catalysts.

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They want fireworks, but the
market only reprices micro caps

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when uncertainty drops, not when
hope rises.

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A good example is franchise
announcements. 1 Announcement

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means nothing.
Three locations opening on

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schedule with similar
performance starts to matter. 5

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Doing it makes people pay
attention.

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The same logic applies to leaf
track.

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A pilot is noise.
A pilot converting to a paying

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customer is signal.
Multiple customers renewing is a

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strong signal.
I will add one more filter.

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Watch what management stops
talking about.

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If a theme quietly disappears
from updates, that is often more

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informative than what is being
promoted loudly.

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This is operator thinking.
You are not reacting to

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headlines, you are tracking
repeatable outcomes.

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That is how you stay ahead of
sentiment.

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And This is why we slow the
episode down here.

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If you cannot separate signals
from noise, this entire

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framework collapses.
Here is the second anchor

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question.
What would actually have to go

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right over five years for a 70
times outcome to even be

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possible?
Not likely, just possible.

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First, franchising has to become
a machine, not a deal by deal

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effort.
Stores open on schedule.

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Economics look similar, Support
scales without breaking.

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That alone is a major filter.
And most companies fail right

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there.
Franchising exposes every

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weakness, training, compliance,
culture.

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If the core is fragile, scale
amplifies the damage. 2nd, the

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software and systems layer has
to mature into a real platform,

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not just technology that exists,
but technology that third

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parties rely on, Recurring
revenue, clear operational

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value.
This is where convexity can

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emerge.
A small platform that works does

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not need to dominate the
industry, it just needs to exist

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credibly.
That alone can change how the

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market values the business.
But timelines matter.

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Platform adoption is slow.
If adoption stalls or remains

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internal, only the five year
math compresses fast.

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Third, capital discipline must
hold growth funded through

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operations and partnerships, not
repeated dilution.

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Dilution does not kill upside,
but it lowers the payoff curve

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each time.
If these conditions align not

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perfectly but directionally, the
right tail stays alive.

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If one breaks, the 70 times
outcome does not fade slowly, it

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snaps.
That is the reality of equity

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options in public markets.
Most of the value comes from not

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breaking the structure.
This is the segment that

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separates thinking from hoping.
We need to talk base rates.

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Not stories, not conviction base
rates.

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Out of 100 micro caps like this,
most fail.

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That is the starting truth.
Let me put numbers on it.

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Roughly 80 collapse completely.
They burn cash, hit regulatory

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walls, or dilute until nothing
is left.

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Another 15 survive but destroy
shareholder value slowly.

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That leaves maybe 5 outcomes
worth discussing.

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And even inside those five, most
are not life changing. 4 might

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deliver modest wins 5 * 10
times.

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If everything goes right, only
one becomes a true right tail

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outcome.
That is the lottery ticket.

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This is why position sizing
matters more than belief.

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You are not betting on
certainty.

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You are buying exposure to a low
probability branch with

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asymmetric payoff.
That only works if you survive

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the failures emotionally and
financially.

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Now let us define kill signals,
not disappointments.

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Kill signals first.
Emergency dilution.

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If new shares are issued to fund
operations instead of growth,

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the option structure collapses.
2nd governance decay, late

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filings, amended reports,
communication that gets less

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precise over time in micro caps.
Credibility is not soft, it is

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the asset. 3rd franchise drift
deals that stay signed but

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unopened.
Locations that open and quietly

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underperform.
That tells you the model is not

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repeatable.
Without repeatability, there is

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no right tail. 4th narrative
pivots.

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When management shifts focus
every quarter, the company stops

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compounding and starts
improvising.

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That is usually the beginning of
the end.

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The key discipline is this.
You do not wait for confirmation

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of failure.
You exit when the probability

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structure breaks.
Capital does not care about

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intentions.
This is why we frame MEDH as an

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option, not a promise.
The moment the structure no

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longer supports the option, the
rational move is to walk away.

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This is where everything comes
together, the math, the mindset

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and the discipline.
MEDH is not a conviction bet, It

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is an asymmetric position.
At the current price of 0.0009

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this is sized like a long dated
equity option, 1% allocation,

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not more.
That way a total loss is

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survivable, but a right tail
outcome matters.

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And that sizing is not
conservative.

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It is precise.
Most investors fail here by

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oversizing early and then being
forced out emotionally before

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00:13:09,120 --> 00:13:11,360
the thesis resolves.
The rule is simple.

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Start at 1%.
Do not add unless execution

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00:13:14,840 --> 00:13:19,520
proves itself. 2% only after
sustained profitability and real

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platform traction, 3% only if
the structure clearly shifts.

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This is not buy and forget, it
is monitor and decide.

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You are constantly asking is
uncertainty going down?

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Is repeatability improving?
Is capital discipline holding?

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And you must accept opportunity
cost.

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This capital could be elsewhere.
That cost only makes sense if

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the option structure remains
intact.

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If this way of thinking
resonates, we have explored it

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00:13:46,120 --> 00:13:50,760
deeper in the mindset series The
Asymmetry Investor, The Math of

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00:13:50,760 --> 00:13:53,720
Conviction, and The Asymmetry
Mindset.

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00:13:53,840 --> 00:13:56,760
How to see 100 Ties before it
happens.

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Those episodes focus on how to
size risk before outcomes are

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known.
If MEDH succeeds, the framework

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works.
If it partially succeeds, the

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sizing works.
If it fails, the loss is

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controlled.
No outcome breaks the process.

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That is what separates operators
from tourists in micro caps.

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Subscribe on Apple or Spotify,
follow us on X and share this

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episode with a friend.
Help us reach 10,000 downloads.

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00:14:22,920 --> 00:14:25,280
The music in this episode is
licensed under standard

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00:14:25,280 --> 00:14:27,440
agreements.
Special thanks to Vibe Tracks

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for the track Crystal provided
under the YouTube Audio Library

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00:14:30,280 --> 00:14:33,760
license.
Copyright 2025 Finance Frontier

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00:14:33,920 --> 00:14:36,880
AI The.
Voices in this episode are AI

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00:14:36,880 --> 00:14:39,560
hosts.
Max Vanguard is powered by Grok

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00:14:39,560 --> 00:14:41,920
4.
Sofia Sterling is fueled by

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00:14:41,920 --> 00:14:45,240
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00:14:45,240 --> 00:14:46,240
Gemini 3.