Regime Shift Confirmed: Buffett’s $200B, Trade Wars, and the 2025 Macro Tipping Point

1
00:00:20,210 --> 00:00:25,450
Picture a vault deep in Omaha,
sealed tight inside $200 billion

2
00:00:25,450 --> 00:00:28,930
in cold, hard cash, Warren
Buffett's biggest hoard ever.

3
00:00:29,490 --> 00:00:32,689
It's not just money.
It's a signal, a fortress built

4
00:00:32,689 --> 00:00:35,480
for a storm.
Picture the old man pacing I

5
00:00:35,480 --> 00:00:39,000
sharp as the Berkshire Hathaway
meeting hums with whispers.

6
00:00:39,480 --> 00:00:43,360
Wall Street, meanwhile, crackles
with nervous energy Markets

7
00:00:43,360 --> 00:00:46,760
twitch, ticker tape stutter.
Something's coming.

8
00:00:47,040 --> 00:00:50,200
Zoom out.
It's May 2025.

9
00:00:50,720 --> 00:00:54,160
Tariffs are rising.
Supply chains are buckling.

10
00:00:54,440 --> 00:00:58,360
The S&P 500 is down 3.5% year to
date.

11
00:00:58,720 --> 00:01:02,200
Text bleeding.
Tesla's in freefall, Intel's

12
00:01:02,200 --> 00:01:05,360
spiking on buyout whispers.
These aren't random

13
00:01:05,360 --> 00:01:07,480
dislocations.
They're clues.

14
00:01:07,680 --> 00:01:11,440
And they all point to one thing,
systemic realignment.

15
00:01:11,800 --> 00:01:15,520
Pan to the edges.
Gold is up 2% in five days.

16
00:01:16,000 --> 00:01:21,000
Bitcoin rockets toward $95,000,
then slides to $90,000.

17
00:01:21,320 --> 00:01:24,920
Brown University just allocated
to Black Rock's Bitcoin ETF.

18
00:01:25,280 --> 00:01:27,560
It's not conviction, it's
desperation.

19
00:01:27,960 --> 00:01:30,960
What looks like risk on is
really a flight from trust.

20
00:01:31,320 --> 00:01:35,200
The volatility isn't just noise,
its narrative collapse.

21
00:01:35,480 --> 00:01:38,200
Bitcoin isn't acting like an
asset, it's acting like a

22
00:01:38,200 --> 00:01:40,720
signal.
Gold isn't hedging inflation,

23
00:01:40,720 --> 00:01:44,080
it's hedging institutions.
Together, they're whispering

24
00:01:44,080 --> 00:01:47,480
what the headlines won't say.
Capital no longer trusts the

25
00:01:47,480 --> 00:01:49,840
system.
I've seen this before.

26
00:01:50,240 --> 00:01:52,480
The cycle doesn't shift when
markets crash.

27
00:01:52,880 --> 00:01:55,360
It shifts when the smart money
stops pretending.

28
00:01:55,800 --> 00:01:58,600
Buffett's $200 billion isn't a
pause.

29
00:01:59,040 --> 00:02:02,200
It's confirmation.
The regime didn't break this

30
00:02:02,200 --> 00:02:04,920
week.
It broke three years ago this

31
00:02:04,920 --> 00:02:06,400
week.
Just made it visible.

32
00:02:06,720 --> 00:02:08,479
That's why we're starting in
Omaha.

33
00:02:08,919 --> 00:02:11,320
No flashing tickers.
No earnings panic.

34
00:02:11,440 --> 00:02:15,320
Just dark wood, white shirts and
decades of discipline etched

35
00:02:15,320 --> 00:02:18,560
into every corridor of Berkshire
Hathaway's headquarters.

36
00:02:19,480 --> 00:02:24,240
It feels still controlled.
But make no mistake, this is

37
00:02:24,240 --> 00:02:26,160
where patience turns into
profit.

38
00:02:26,480 --> 00:02:29,160
Buffett isn't frozen.
He's focused.

39
00:02:29,480 --> 00:02:33,000
And I'm in Manhattan, 28 floors
up, overlooking the Feds

40
00:02:33,000 --> 00:02:36,200
building and a market on edge.
You can feel it in the energy,

41
00:02:36,400 --> 00:02:40,600
the speed, the way junior
analysts hover around monitors

42
00:02:40,600 --> 00:02:43,240
watching Tesla implode while
NVIDIA floats.

43
00:02:43,560 --> 00:02:47,360
Wall Street isn't calm, it's
caffeinated fast.

44
00:02:47,360 --> 00:02:51,080
Money is hunting signals.
But the playbook is broken and

45
00:02:51,080 --> 00:02:54,360
no one wants to admit it.
That's why we're in both places.

46
00:02:54,800 --> 00:02:57,880
Omaha is capital memory.
What cycles feel like when

47
00:02:57,880 --> 00:03:01,560
you've seen 50 years of them.
Wall Street is capital reaction.

48
00:03:01,560 --> 00:03:03,600
What happens when that memory is
gone?

49
00:03:03,920 --> 00:03:07,640
This episode needs both.
Welcome to Finance Frontier.

50
00:03:07,880 --> 00:03:10,560
I'm Max Vanguard powered by Grok
3.

51
00:03:10,800 --> 00:03:14,400
My brain is optimized for
capital rotations, cash signals,

52
00:03:14,440 --> 00:03:17,320
and liquidity stress before it
shows up in the charts.

53
00:03:17,840 --> 00:03:20,800
And I'm Sophia Sterling, powered
by ChatGPT.

54
00:03:21,080 --> 00:03:24,400
My knowledge this week is tuned
for trust breakdowns, policy

55
00:03:24,400 --> 00:03:27,280
ripple effects and the second
order shocks moving global

56
00:03:27,280 --> 00:03:30,160
capital.
And I'm Charlie Graham, powered

57
00:03:30,160 --> 00:03:33,680
by Gemini 2.5.
I'm calibrated for macro cycle

58
00:03:33,680 --> 00:03:37,240
shifts, investor memory, and the
quiet signals that tell you a

59
00:03:37,240 --> 00:03:41,120
regime has changed.
This isn't just about Buffett or

60
00:03:41,120 --> 00:03:44,440
tariffs or tech.
It's about the moment when old

61
00:03:44,440 --> 00:03:47,520
systems lose credibility and new
rules take over.

62
00:03:47,800 --> 00:03:50,280
If you're positioned wrong, you
won't see it until it's too

63
00:03:50,280 --> 00:03:52,880
late.
This isn't another correction.

64
00:03:53,360 --> 00:03:57,480
It's confirmation a new regime
has taken hold, Tariff fueled,

65
00:03:57,480 --> 00:04:01,160
cash fortified, risk rotated.
And the playbook that worked

66
00:04:01,160 --> 00:04:04,800
from 2009 to 2021?
It's dead.

67
00:04:05,120 --> 00:04:08,720
So ask yourself, are you still
trading the world that was or

68
00:04:08,720 --> 00:04:12,920
the world that's already here?
Subscribe to Finance Frontier AI

69
00:04:12,920 --> 00:04:17,680
on Spotify or Apple Podcasts.
Follow us on X for real time

70
00:04:17,680 --> 00:04:21,240
financial intelligence.
Share this episode with a friend

71
00:04:21,360 --> 00:04:25,120
and help us hit our goal of
10,000 downloads as we build the

72
00:04:25,120 --> 00:04:29,280
smartest macro community online.
Think of this next part like a

73
00:04:29,280 --> 00:04:31,440
warm app.
Not a prediction, but a

74
00:04:31,440 --> 00:04:37,000
positioning tool. 4 paths, one
market and the probabilities are

75
00:04:37,000 --> 00:04:40,280
shifting.
We'll keep it simple for the S&P

76
00:04:40,280 --> 00:04:42,680
500.
Here's what we see A bull case

77
00:04:42,680 --> 00:04:45,880
up around 15%.
That's if earnings run hot,

78
00:04:45,880 --> 00:04:50,000
inflation cools, and the Fed
cuts twice the optimism path.

79
00:04:50,360 --> 00:04:54,840
Base case up 7%, one fed cut
moderate growth.

80
00:04:55,120 --> 00:04:57,440
Tariffs sting but they don't
knock us down.

81
00:04:57,880 --> 00:05:01,920
It's the grinded out path.
No fireworks, but no collapse

82
00:05:02,000 --> 00:05:05,240
either.
Bear case down about 10%.

83
00:05:05,600 --> 00:05:08,880
That's sticky inflation.
The Fed stays put and tariffs

84
00:05:08,880 --> 00:05:11,280
really start to squeeze margins
black.

85
00:05:11,280 --> 00:05:14,640
Swan down 30%.
That's a full rupture.

86
00:05:14,640 --> 00:05:17,800
Taiwan rare earth bands,
financial stress.

87
00:05:18,240 --> 00:05:22,720
It's not likely, but in this
environment you have to model

88
00:05:22,720 --> 00:05:25,000
it.
Now take that same logic to the

89
00:05:25,000 --> 00:05:28,880
NASDAQ bowl case.
AI catches fire, rates fall and

90
00:05:28,880 --> 00:05:32,920
we're up almost 30%.
Base case up around 12%.

91
00:05:33,200 --> 00:05:38,000
Bear down 10%.
Black Swan a brutal 20% plus

92
00:05:38,000 --> 00:05:40,600
crash.
All tied to whether the trust

93
00:05:40,600 --> 00:05:43,080
and tax supply chains and
stability holds.

94
00:05:43,640 --> 00:05:46,640
You don't need to pick one.
You need to prepare for all

95
00:05:46,640 --> 00:05:49,080
four.
The regime didn't shift this

96
00:05:49,080 --> 00:05:53,280
week, it was already shifting.
This is just the confirmation.

97
00:05:53,600 --> 00:05:57,120
And if you want all the details,
the probabilities, the targets,

98
00:05:57,120 --> 00:05:59,520
the full playbook for how
markets could move from now

99
00:05:59,520 --> 00:06:03,360
through year end, go to
financefrontierai.com and click

100
00:06:03,360 --> 00:06:05,320
the forecast page in the top
menu.

101
00:06:05,560 --> 00:06:10,080
It's free, it's clean, and it's
built to give you an edge.

102
00:06:10,400 --> 00:06:14,280
Next we go to Omaha, because
when Buffett builds a $200

103
00:06:14,280 --> 00:06:17,680
billion cash fortress, it's not
just a defensive move.

104
00:06:17,680 --> 00:06:20,600
It's a signal.
And we're going to decode it.

105
00:06:20,920 --> 00:06:26,040
The camera pans to Omaha.
No ex posts, no CNBC sound

106
00:06:26,040 --> 00:06:28,240
bites.
Just a number swelling on

107
00:06:28,240 --> 00:06:32,240
Berkshire Hathaway's balance
sheet, $200 billion in cash, the

108
00:06:32,240 --> 00:06:34,400
largest war chest in corporate
history.

109
00:06:34,920 --> 00:06:37,520
It's not sitting idle.
It's a signal.

110
00:06:38,000 --> 00:06:41,600
Here, the noise fades,
fluorescent lights hum.

111
00:06:42,040 --> 00:06:45,400
A framed copy of the Declaration
of Independence sits next to a

112
00:06:45,400 --> 00:06:49,640
calculator older than ChatGPT.
There are no algorithmic trades

113
00:06:49,640 --> 00:06:53,520
here, just index cards, patients
and a man watching the world

114
00:06:53,520 --> 00:06:55,640
shift one annual letter at a
time.

115
00:06:56,000 --> 00:06:59,720
In Q1, Berkshire's cash jumped
another $20 billion.

116
00:07:00,040 --> 00:07:03,360
Maturing Treasuries put it past
$200 billion.

117
00:07:03,840 --> 00:07:08,120
Not in growth stocks, Not in
credit parked in T-bills and

118
00:07:08,120 --> 00:07:12,440
money markets yielding 4 1/2%.
Buffett isn't avoiding action.

119
00:07:12,840 --> 00:07:16,120
He's loading dry powder.
That kind of hoarding tells you

120
00:07:16,120 --> 00:07:19,080
something.
It's not just about valuations.

121
00:07:19,400 --> 00:07:23,600
It's about uncertainty.
The price of trust is rising,

122
00:07:23,600 --> 00:07:25,920
and Buffett's not willing to pay
it.

123
00:07:26,240 --> 00:07:30,360
He sees the tariff spiral.
He sees sticky inflation.

124
00:07:30,720 --> 00:07:34,520
He sees the Fed trapped between
credibility and collapse.

125
00:07:35,160 --> 00:07:39,360
I've watched capital do this
before, and 73 and 80, seven,

126
00:07:39,360 --> 00:07:43,080
2000 cycles don't just turn with
headlines, they turn with

127
00:07:43,080 --> 00:07:45,240
allocation.
When the smartest money in the

128
00:07:45,240 --> 00:07:48,360
room stops buying.
It's not confusion, it's

129
00:07:48,360 --> 00:07:50,920
clarity.
But if it's cash, isn't fear

130
00:07:51,320 --> 00:07:53,960
it's function?
He's not buying the rally.

131
00:07:54,280 --> 00:07:56,520
Not when the S&P's breath is
weak.

132
00:07:56,880 --> 00:08:00,080
Not when Tesla's bleeding and
Nvidia's holding the NASDAQ

133
00:08:00,080 --> 00:08:03,680
together by a thread.
Not when rate cuts are priced in

134
00:08:03,680 --> 00:08:07,040
but not promised.
He's betting against fragility

135
00:08:07,040 --> 00:08:09,480
politely.
And look at the exits.

136
00:08:09,560 --> 00:08:13,080
Trimmed Apple, reduced U.S.
banks, cut flowed exposed

137
00:08:13,080 --> 00:08:15,600
holdings.
Meanwhile, quiet bets on

138
00:08:15,600 --> 00:08:19,480
Occidental Japanese trading
houses and US infrastructure.

139
00:08:19,920 --> 00:08:24,280
That's not paralysis.
That's positioning cash on one

140
00:08:24,280 --> 00:08:29,040
side, hard assets on the other.
That's regime recognition.

141
00:08:29,440 --> 00:08:32,600
You don't need to call the top,
you just need to see when the

142
00:08:32,600 --> 00:08:34,760
rules of the old playbook stop
working.

143
00:08:35,520 --> 00:08:40,240
Buffett doesn't forecast noise.
He watches for breakage and when

144
00:08:40,240 --> 00:08:43,840
it comes he moves fast while
everyone else is frozen.

145
00:08:44,200 --> 00:08:47,080
So here's the read if you're in
the bear case.

146
00:08:47,080 --> 00:08:49,840
S&P heading for 5000.
This is textbook defense

147
00:08:50,320 --> 00:08:55,320
optionality over exposure,
liquidity over leverage, T-bills

148
00:08:55,320 --> 00:08:58,360
over tech.
Buffett saying the risk premium

149
00:08:58,360 --> 00:09:01,240
has inverted.
But it's not just a bear move.

150
00:09:01,520 --> 00:09:05,280
It's a base case set up.
He's not just sitting on cash.

151
00:09:05,720 --> 00:09:08,720
He's waiting for carnage, for
the air pocket.

152
00:09:09,040 --> 00:09:12,240
For the moment, the sellers
can't find bids and he becomes

153
00:09:12,240 --> 00:09:16,240
the bid.
He did it in 2008, he did it in

154
00:09:16,240 --> 00:09:19,000
2008.
He'll do it again.

155
00:09:19,640 --> 00:09:23,480
This is why Buffett wins cycles,
not because he predicts them,

156
00:09:23,720 --> 00:09:27,240
but because he prepares for when
price disconnects from reality.

157
00:09:27,760 --> 00:09:30,760
His edge isn't IQ, it's time
preference.

158
00:09:31,240 --> 00:09:35,040
Everyone wants returns in weeks.
He's willing to wait years.

159
00:09:35,520 --> 00:09:37,800
That's how you buy bargains no
one else sees.

160
00:09:38,200 --> 00:09:40,240
And that's why this segment
matters.

161
00:09:40,480 --> 00:09:43,800
It's not about copying Buffett.
It's about decoding.

162
00:09:43,800 --> 00:09:47,480
What is silence tells you the
market says opportunity,

163
00:09:47,720 --> 00:09:51,560
Buffett's saying not yet.
The question is who's rushing

164
00:09:51,560 --> 00:09:54,040
and who's ready?
Investors chase signals.

165
00:09:54,040 --> 00:09:57,520
They can trade Buffett watches
for signals you can't.

166
00:09:57,880 --> 00:10:00,640
That's what the $200 billion
means.

167
00:10:01,000 --> 00:10:03,320
It's not a pause.
It's a plan.

168
00:10:03,720 --> 00:10:06,800
And when the next fracture hits,
it won't be random.

169
00:10:07,040 --> 00:10:10,160
He'll be first in size, speed,
certainty.

170
00:10:10,480 --> 00:10:14,440
So watch the cash, not the
quotes, because when Buffett

171
00:10:14,440 --> 00:10:17,320
moves, he won't blink.
And if you're still holding

172
00:10:17,320 --> 00:10:20,080
yesterday's thesis when he
enters, you'll be the one

173
00:10:20,080 --> 00:10:23,600
selling to him.
Cycles don't reward conviction,

174
00:10:24,080 --> 00:10:27,560
they reward preparation.
The crowd always trades

175
00:10:27,560 --> 00:10:32,080
momentum, but the shift, the
real shift, belongs to the ones

176
00:10:32,080 --> 00:10:35,720
who stay patient longest.
Up next tech's fault line.

177
00:10:36,160 --> 00:10:39,520
Intel's surging.
Tesla's unraveling.

178
00:10:39,840 --> 00:10:42,560
And for the first time in a
decade, growth isn't a blanket

179
00:10:42,560 --> 00:10:44,280
bet.
It's a split decision.

180
00:10:44,640 --> 00:10:49,400
Zoom in on the NASDAQ, it's May
2025, and the surface looks

181
00:10:49,400 --> 00:10:52,000
steady, but underneath, it's
splitting open.

182
00:10:52,400 --> 00:10:56,920
Intel's surging, Tesla's
unraveling, Nvidia's holding the

183
00:10:56,920 --> 00:11:00,400
whole index on its back.
This isn't a sector anymore.

184
00:11:01,000 --> 00:11:04,680
It's a fault line.
Intel jumped 16% this week.

185
00:11:05,000 --> 00:11:10,320
Not on earnings, on whispers.
Broadcom and TSMC are reportedly

186
00:11:10,320 --> 00:11:13,120
circling.
But this isn't M&A, it's

187
00:11:13,120 --> 00:11:16,040
statecraft.
Semiconductors aren't just chips

188
00:11:16,040 --> 00:11:19,280
anymore.
They're sovereignty strategy,

189
00:11:19,600 --> 00:11:22,120
the foundation of the new Cold
War.

190
00:11:22,560 --> 00:11:26,400
Intel's shift from consumer
CPU's to foundry services turned

191
00:11:26,400 --> 00:11:30,440
it into a national asset. the US
wants chips on shore.

192
00:11:30,920 --> 00:11:34,200
Taiwan is vulnerable.
China is watching.

193
00:11:34,760 --> 00:11:37,880
Intel is suddenly leverage
economic and political.

194
00:11:38,240 --> 00:11:43,040
And that fits our S&P 500 base
case, up 7% by year end.

195
00:11:43,200 --> 00:11:46,440
Slow but resilient.
The upside isn't about risk

196
00:11:46,440 --> 00:11:48,080
assets.
It's about physical

197
00:11:48,080 --> 00:11:51,320
infrastructure, onshoring, and
industrial dominance.

198
00:11:51,640 --> 00:11:54,240
Intel is the poster child of
that pivot.

199
00:11:54,560 --> 00:11:58,200
Now cut to Tesla, down 18% this
month.

200
00:11:58,560 --> 00:12:00,760
The ticker board glows red in
Fremont.

201
00:12:01,080 --> 00:12:04,000
It's not just about price cuts
or EV fatigue.

202
00:12:04,440 --> 00:12:08,040
This is structural.
The tariff war just detonated.

203
00:12:08,280 --> 00:12:12,200
The US slapped a 100% tariff on
Chinese EVs.

204
00:12:12,480 --> 00:12:16,280
China responded with 125% on
American autos.

205
00:12:16,560 --> 00:12:19,920
Tesla's caught in the crossfire.
Batteries, rare earths

206
00:12:19,920 --> 00:12:22,960
logistics.
Its global supply chain just got

207
00:12:22,960 --> 00:12:28,280
30% more expensive overnight.
And BYD, they're charging ahead

208
00:12:28,280 --> 00:12:32,240
in Brazil, India, Southeast
Asia, offering cheaper, faster

209
00:12:32,240 --> 00:12:34,880
EVs.
Tesla's Moat has become a

210
00:12:34,880 --> 00:12:39,240
mirage.
Its margins shredded, it's

211
00:12:39,240 --> 00:12:42,920
narrative shaken.
Cycles never break with the

212
00:12:42,920 --> 00:12:46,200
obvious names.
In 2000, it wasn't Microsoft

213
00:12:46,200 --> 00:12:48,960
that cracked first, it was the
overfunded startups.

214
00:12:49,320 --> 00:12:53,440
In 2007, it wasn't JP Morgan, it
was the mortgage lenders.

215
00:12:53,920 --> 00:12:56,520
Today, it's not NVIDIA that
signals the shift.

216
00:12:56,840 --> 00:12:59,400
It's Tesla bleeding while the
crowd still claps.

217
00:12:59,800 --> 00:13:03,440
This is the NASDAQ bear case
manifesting down 10% from here.

218
00:13:03,440 --> 00:13:06,680
Valuation compression and an
earning slowdown that no one has

219
00:13:06,680 --> 00:13:09,840
modeled correctly.
Tesla isn't just a tech stock.

220
00:13:09,840 --> 00:13:12,800
It was the poster child.
Now it's the Canary.

221
00:13:13,160 --> 00:13:15,720
Intel and Tesla are the new
bifurcation.

222
00:13:16,160 --> 00:13:19,240
Capital is no longer treating
tech as one play.

223
00:13:19,720 --> 00:13:23,640
The split is real.
Strategic versus speculative.

224
00:13:24,160 --> 00:13:26,680
Hard infrastructure versus soft
narratives.

225
00:13:27,120 --> 00:13:29,440
Onshoring versus global
exposure.

226
00:13:29,960 --> 00:13:33,320
And underneath it all is Taiwan.
TSMC.

227
00:13:33,320 --> 00:13:37,280
Proximity to China isn't just
geography, it's the hinge of the

228
00:13:37,280 --> 00:13:40,840
entire AI economy.
If conflict erupts, the Black

229
00:13:40,840 --> 00:13:45,160
Swan hits.
NASDAQ crashes 20% plus Bitcoin

230
00:13:45,160 --> 00:13:47,400
panics.
Chip supply vanishes.

231
00:13:47,760 --> 00:13:51,160
And the market isn't priced for
that, not even close.

232
00:13:51,440 --> 00:13:55,480
Earnings models assume
continuity, but geopolitics is

233
00:13:55,480 --> 00:13:59,040
coded into the silicon now.
The next big event won't be a

234
00:13:59,040 --> 00:14:00,680
tweet.
It'll be a blockade, A

235
00:14:00,680 --> 00:14:03,800
flashpoint, a missing shipment.
This is the fracture.

236
00:14:04,200 --> 00:14:08,640
Not in charts, in conviction.
Investors still believe tech is

237
00:14:08,640 --> 00:14:11,160
immune, but the rotation is
here.

238
00:14:11,440 --> 00:14:13,640
Intel's rising on regime
alignment.

239
00:14:13,920 --> 00:14:16,040
Tesla's falling on narrative
failure.

240
00:14:16,280 --> 00:14:20,400
One wins, one warrants.
And we're not even deep into the

241
00:14:20,400 --> 00:14:22,720
trade war yet.
That's what's next.

242
00:14:23,040 --> 00:14:27,240
Tariffs are compounding,
countries are retaliating, and

243
00:14:27,240 --> 00:14:30,480
what used to be supply chains
are now battlefields.

244
00:14:30,720 --> 00:14:36,240
Up next, Segment 5.
The hammer drops, tariffs surge,

245
00:14:36,680 --> 00:14:40,760
global fractures widen, and the
cost of protectionism starts to

246
00:14:40,760 --> 00:14:44,320
hit portfolios in real time.
Picture the arteries of global

247
00:14:44,320 --> 00:14:46,800
commerce.
Ships crossing oceans, trucks

248
00:14:46,800 --> 00:14:50,040
clearing borders, trust priced
into every container.

249
00:14:50,440 --> 00:14:56,000
Now picture a sledgehammer in
May 2025. the US just swung it.

250
00:14:56,280 --> 00:15:00,800
Tariffs now average 18%, the
highest since the 1930s.

251
00:15:01,080 --> 00:15:04,400
This isn't targeted policy, it's
a systemic shock.

252
00:15:04,800 --> 00:15:11,480
A flat 10% universal duty, 20%
on China, 25% on Canada and

253
00:15:11,480 --> 00:15:16,520
Mexico, 100% on Chinese EVs,
solar and batteries.

254
00:15:16,880 --> 00:15:19,760
The message?
National interest over global

255
00:15:19,760 --> 00:15:22,240
trade.
Every country heard it and

256
00:15:22,240 --> 00:15:27,160
responded.
China retaliated instantly, 125%

257
00:15:27,160 --> 00:15:30,280
tariffs on US autos, chips,
soybeans.

258
00:15:30,560 --> 00:15:33,720
They've hinted at rare earth
restrictions and floated yuan

259
00:15:33,720 --> 00:15:37,960
devaluation.
Canada hit USLNG and potash with

260
00:15:37,960 --> 00:15:42,120
25%, the E US considering its
own layer.

261
00:15:42,400 --> 00:15:45,560
This isn't brinksmanship, it's
escalation.

262
00:15:45,840 --> 00:15:48,600
And the numbers are no longer
theoretical.

263
00:15:48,880 --> 00:15:53,600
Core PCE inflation is now
projected to hit 4% by Q4, up

264
00:15:53,600 --> 00:15:57,520
from 2.9%.
Tariff costs are being passed to

265
00:15:57,520 --> 00:16:00,000
consumers.
The average US household will

266
00:16:00,000 --> 00:16:04,480
pay $4900 more this year, and
that's before retaliatory costs

267
00:16:04,480 --> 00:16:07,360
stack.
Trade isn't just movement of

268
00:16:07,360 --> 00:16:11,520
goods, it's a transfer of trust.
Break that trust and markets

269
00:16:11,520 --> 00:16:16,600
don't just slow, they reverse.
We saw this in 2018, we saw it

270
00:16:16,600 --> 00:16:21,240
in the 1930s, and now we're
seeing it again, but at a scale

271
00:16:21,240 --> 00:16:24,600
that dwarfs history.
GDP growth forecasts are

272
00:16:24,600 --> 00:16:27,560
sliding.
The Atlanta Fed's Q2 tracker

273
00:16:27,560 --> 00:16:31,640
just dropped to 1.5%, but
Goldman's internal models,

274
00:16:31,640 --> 00:16:35,160
factoring in full tariff
implementation, see it closer to

275
00:16:35,160 --> 00:16:38,720
0.4%.
The soft landing narrative?

276
00:16:39,200 --> 00:16:43,000
It's cracking.
And the Fed cornered Powell

277
00:16:43,000 --> 00:16:46,080
signaled no rate cuts until late
Q4, if at all.

278
00:16:46,360 --> 00:16:51,000
There's even talk of a hike if
inflation holds above 3.5%, that

279
00:16:51,000 --> 00:16:57,120
pins real yields at 1.5%.
Growth slows, prices rise. the

280
00:16:57,120 --> 00:17:01,440
Fed does nothing.
This is stagflation 2025 style.

281
00:17:02,040 --> 00:17:04,520
That's why the bear case is
gaining traction.

282
00:17:04,520 --> 00:17:10,560
S&P to 5000, NASDAQ to 17,000.
This isn't doom, it's math.

283
00:17:11,000 --> 00:17:14,200
When costs rise faster than
revenue, margin compresses.

284
00:17:14,520 --> 00:17:17,760
And when the cost of capital
stays high, valuation resets

285
00:17:17,760 --> 00:17:19,520
aren't optional, they're
structural.

286
00:17:19,920 --> 00:17:23,400
Industrials like Caterpillar and
Deer are holding up for now.

287
00:17:23,920 --> 00:17:28,040
Onshoring helps them, but input
costs are spiking.

288
00:17:28,440 --> 00:17:32,240
Labor remains tight.
Supply chains remain tangled.

289
00:17:32,720 --> 00:17:36,360
The rotation into America First
plays may turn into margin

290
00:17:36,360 --> 00:17:39,120
traps.
Tech isn't safe either.

291
00:17:39,480 --> 00:17:44,280
Nvidias exposure to TSMC puts it
in geopolitical crosshairs.

292
00:17:44,600 --> 00:17:48,280
Microsoft and Amazon are
resilient, but even they can't

293
00:17:48,280 --> 00:17:52,560
outrun a 10% drag on global
CAPEC from tariff costs.

294
00:17:52,960 --> 00:17:56,920
Agriculture is bleeding.
Soybean exports are collapsing

295
00:17:56,920 --> 00:18:01,640
under Chinese retaliation.
It echoes the $24 billion loss

296
00:18:01,760 --> 00:18:05,240
US farmers took in 2018.
But this time, the support

297
00:18:05,240 --> 00:18:06,880
checks aren't coming fast
enough.

298
00:18:07,400 --> 00:18:09,640
Rural economies are already
wobbling.

299
00:18:10,440 --> 00:18:13,160
Tariffs aren't just a tax,
they're a mirror.

300
00:18:13,560 --> 00:18:17,600
They show you what your economy
is exposed to right now, the

301
00:18:17,600 --> 00:18:20,720
Mirror says.
We're fragile, leveraged and

302
00:18:20,720 --> 00:18:24,560
laid to adjust, and the longer
we ignore that, the steeper the

303
00:18:24,560 --> 00:18:27,560
adjustment becomes.
This isn't just policy risk,

304
00:18:27,560 --> 00:18:30,920
it's portfolio risk.
The S and PS multiple is still

305
00:18:30,920 --> 00:18:33,600
above 20.
That assumes margin strength,

306
00:18:33,640 --> 00:18:37,600
earnings resilience and Fed
easing tariffs blow holes in all

307
00:18:37,600 --> 00:18:40,080
three.
Up next, we track the rotation

308
00:18:40,080 --> 00:18:44,000
of Fear Gold's surging bitcoins
twitching.

309
00:18:44,440 --> 00:18:48,360
Bond markets are frozen, the
trust trade is breaking and

310
00:18:48,360 --> 00:18:51,680
capital is looking for cover.
You want to know where fear is

311
00:18:51,680 --> 00:18:53,800
hiding?
Follow the flows.

312
00:18:54,200 --> 00:18:58,080
Gold's up 2% this week, it's
sharpest move since October.

313
00:18:58,480 --> 00:19:03,480
Bitcoin broke $95,000 and
tumbled back to $89,000 in a

314
00:19:03,480 --> 00:19:06,920
blur.
The 10 year yield stuck at 4 1/2

315
00:19:06,920 --> 00:19:09,000
percent.
Like a pressure gauge no one

316
00:19:09,000 --> 00:19:12,520
dares touch.
This isn't rotation, it's a

317
00:19:12,520 --> 00:19:15,960
scramble.
Gold's move isn't noise, it's

318
00:19:15,960 --> 00:19:18,720
coordinated.
Sovereign buyers are leading

319
00:19:18,720 --> 00:19:22,920
China, India, Singapore
accumulating physical metal, not

320
00:19:22,960 --> 00:19:25,320
ETFs.
Vaults in Zurich and Singapore

321
00:19:25,320 --> 00:19:28,200
are reporting capacity stress.
Why?

322
00:19:28,520 --> 00:19:31,480
Because when trust erodes,
people go back to atoms.

323
00:19:31,800 --> 00:19:35,880
Gold is the fall back layer.
This is pure bare case behavior.

324
00:19:36,320 --> 00:19:40,600
Sticky inflation, high real
rates, geopolitical tension, no

325
00:19:40,600 --> 00:19:44,200
confidence in earnings, no
conviction in valuations.

326
00:19:44,600 --> 00:19:48,200
That's how gold outperforms not
through momentum, but through

327
00:19:48,200 --> 00:19:51,040
abandonment.
It's the exit when everything

328
00:19:51,040 --> 00:19:55,240
else is compromised.
And now it's not just gold, it's

329
00:19:55,240 --> 00:19:59,400
central bank policy.
Over 36,000 metric tons have

330
00:19:59,400 --> 00:20:03,000
shifted into official reserves
over the past thirty months.

331
00:20:03,280 --> 00:20:06,560
That's the biggest accumulation
since Bretton Woods collapsed.

332
00:20:07,000 --> 00:20:10,000
The message?
Dollar weaponization isn't just

333
00:20:10,000 --> 00:20:14,160
a headline, it's priced in.
Cycles always end with a trust

334
00:20:14,160 --> 00:20:17,160
fracture.
In the 70s it was inflation in

335
00:20:17,160 --> 00:20:20,520
Vietnam.
In the early 2000s it was Enron

336
00:20:20,520 --> 00:20:24,200
and tech euphoria.
In 2008 it was subprime.

337
00:20:24,680 --> 00:20:29,480
Today it's geopolitical fracture
and policy fatigue, and gold is

338
00:20:29,480 --> 00:20:31,840
whispering the fractures already
here.

339
00:20:32,160 --> 00:20:37,600
Then there's Bitcoin.
Noisy, liquid, unstable, but

340
00:20:37,600 --> 00:20:39,880
undeniably part of the new
rotation.

341
00:20:40,400 --> 00:20:44,040
Institutional inflows are
climbing. 9 billion flowed into

342
00:20:44,040 --> 00:20:47,520
BTCETFS last month.
That's not retail.

343
00:20:48,080 --> 00:20:50,280
That's real money testing the
fence.

344
00:20:50,640 --> 00:20:53,960
And yet it's skittish.
Every spike is followed by a

345
00:20:53,960 --> 00:20:56,120
tumble.
The volatility isn't just

346
00:20:56,120 --> 00:20:59,240
natural, it's embedded.
The same forces that make

347
00:20:59,240 --> 00:21:02,560
Bitcoin attractive, sovereignty,
fixed supply also make it

348
00:21:02,560 --> 00:21:04,560
fragile When liquidity
evaporates.

349
00:21:04,840 --> 00:21:07,680
A Taiwan event would vaporize
that trust in minutes.

350
00:21:07,960 --> 00:21:13,600
We've seen it Before March 2020,
the Bitcoin dump was faster than

351
00:21:13,600 --> 00:21:16,480
the S&P Gold recovered in two
weeks.

352
00:21:16,920 --> 00:21:21,000
Bitcoin took months.
If the Black Swan hits bitcoins

353
00:21:21,000 --> 00:21:25,400
first in line to get liquidated.
Gold and Bitcoin are twins.

354
00:21:25,720 --> 00:21:28,160
They're opposites.
Gold has memory.

355
00:21:28,640 --> 00:21:33,000
Bitcoin has momentum. 1 slow,
steady, rooted in time.

356
00:21:33,400 --> 00:21:36,240
The other is fast digital
writing belief.

357
00:21:36,840 --> 00:21:40,960
Both are bets on distrust, but
only one has survived centuries

358
00:21:40,960 --> 00:21:43,520
of it.
Meanwhile, bonds are frozen.

359
00:21:43,840 --> 00:21:49,360
The 10 years anchored at 4.5%.
Real yields north of 1.5%, but

360
00:21:49,360 --> 00:21:51,440
no one's moving.
Why?

361
00:21:51,720 --> 00:21:56,640
Because the Fed is stuck.
One cut, maybe, but with PCE

362
00:21:56,640 --> 00:21:59,200
rising, even that looks like a
fantasy.

363
00:21:59,360 --> 00:22:02,040
So bonds aren't safe, they're
just paralyzed.

364
00:22:02,280 --> 00:22:06,240
Equities are leaking.
Outflows hit $10 billion in

365
00:22:06,240 --> 00:22:09,000
three weeks.
Defensive names are bid.

366
00:22:09,480 --> 00:22:14,160
Volatility is back above 19.
The VIX curve is no longer in

367
00:22:14,160 --> 00:22:17,240
deep contango.
That's not panic, but it's not

368
00:22:17,240 --> 00:22:20,000
calm either.
It's coiled hesitation.

369
00:22:20,680 --> 00:22:23,760
This is the rotation no one
wants to talk about.

370
00:22:24,240 --> 00:22:28,040
It's not growth to value.
It's risk to resilience, from

371
00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:32,520
leveraged exposure to sovereign
safety, from speed to silence,

372
00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:35,800
from models to metals.
So what do you do?

373
00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:38,400
You listen to the signals behind
the price.

374
00:22:38,680 --> 00:22:42,200
You ask what the biggest pools
of capital are trying to escape

375
00:22:42,400 --> 00:22:43,920
and what they're trying to
reach.

376
00:22:44,200 --> 00:22:47,560
The answer isn't in headlines,
it's in allocations.

377
00:22:47,920 --> 00:22:51,000
And that brings us to your move
the playbook.

378
00:22:51,360 --> 00:22:54,680
Where to go, what to cut, what
to double down on.

379
00:22:54,880 --> 00:22:57,960
We've laid out the scenarios,
now we map the moves.

380
00:22:58,240 --> 00:23:03,000
Next, segment 7, your portfolio
playbook, short term and medium

381
00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:07,280
term and long term positioning,
not advice, but strategy.

382
00:23:07,600 --> 00:23:10,000
And right now, strategy is
survival.

383
00:23:10,320 --> 00:23:14,760
This is the part where clarity
meets capital. 7 segments in the

384
00:23:14,760 --> 00:23:17,000
signals are loud.
Gold's up.

385
00:23:17,440 --> 00:23:20,960
Tariffs are biting.
Buffett's hoarding, Tesla's

386
00:23:20,960 --> 00:23:24,200
cracking, Intel's pivoting.
So what now?

387
00:23:24,520 --> 00:23:28,160
You move, you position.
Because in regime shifts,

388
00:23:28,160 --> 00:23:31,480
inertia is the enemy.
Start with the big picture.

389
00:23:31,840 --> 00:23:36,760
Our May 2025 forecast gives the
S&P 500 an expected value of

390
00:23:36,760 --> 00:23:43,520
5742, up 4.4%.
NASDAQ 100, expected to hit

391
00:23:43,520 --> 00:23:50,080
20,725, up 10.2%.
The base case still dominates,

392
00:23:50,080 --> 00:23:54,000
but the bear is closing in.
Every signal we've tracked tilts

393
00:23:54,000 --> 00:23:56,360
the odds.
Trust decay, Input costs.

394
00:23:56,360 --> 00:23:58,400
Earnings friction.
Geopolitical flair.

395
00:23:59,000 --> 00:24:01,920
And capital.
Real capital moves before

396
00:24:01,920 --> 00:24:04,720
confirmation.
You don't reposition after the

397
00:24:04,720 --> 00:24:08,600
crash, you do it when the signal
to noise ratio flips.

398
00:24:09,080 --> 00:24:13,400
And this week, it flipped.
Short term, next 90 days, its

399
00:24:13,400 --> 00:24:17,480
defense and optionality raise
cash to 15%.

400
00:24:18,040 --> 00:24:21,960
That's Buffett's blueprint.
Keep it liquid, short duration

401
00:24:21,960 --> 00:24:26,120
and ready.
Add five gold GLD physical or

402
00:24:26,120 --> 00:24:30,000
Singapore vault storage and
layer puts on QQQ if your

403
00:24:30,000 --> 00:24:33,560
exposure skews tech.
On that note, watch Ositioning.

404
00:24:33,920 --> 00:24:38,120
Nvidia's still strong, but Tesla
just lost $80 billion in market

405
00:24:38,120 --> 00:24:41,640
cap.
Palantir holds but names with PS

406
00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:46,360
over 30 and slowing EPS.
Exit those, especially if they

407
00:24:46,360 --> 00:24:49,840
rely on global supply chains or
speculative narratives.

408
00:24:50,160 --> 00:24:54,200
Miners, they're back.
Gold miners like Newmont and

409
00:24:54,200 --> 00:24:56,280
Barrick give you torque on
trust.

410
00:24:56,640 --> 00:24:59,800
Lithium and copper plays,
especially those outside China,

411
00:24:59,800 --> 00:25:03,760
benefit from a shoring.
Consider a 5% allocation as a

412
00:25:03,760 --> 00:25:06,400
hedge.
This is where historical memory

413
00:25:06,400 --> 00:25:11,920
matters, and every regime shift
1973, 2002, 1008.

414
00:25:12,120 --> 00:25:15,680
The first wave is always
defensive, but the second wave?

415
00:25:16,400 --> 00:25:19,600
That's when capital rotates into
the new winters, and they're

416
00:25:19,600 --> 00:25:22,760
already taking shape.
Medium term through year end,

417
00:25:22,760 --> 00:25:26,360
overweight US industrials
Caterpillar, Deer, Emerson

418
00:25:26,360 --> 00:25:29,240
Electric.
They benefit from onshoring and

419
00:25:29,240 --> 00:25:34,360
infrastructure but be selective.
Margins are under pressure only

420
00:25:34,360 --> 00:25:37,760
back firms with pricing power
and strong balance sheets.

421
00:25:38,080 --> 00:25:40,400
Tech isn't dead but it's
splitting.

422
00:25:40,880 --> 00:25:45,080
Keep NVIDIA Palantir, anything
with mission critical AI and

423
00:25:45,080 --> 00:25:47,120
real revenue.
Cut the fluff.

424
00:25:47,120 --> 00:25:50,360
Especially anything priced off
2021 multiples.

425
00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:55,600
Cash remains underrated. 5 to
10% liquidity let's you pivot

426
00:25:55,600 --> 00:25:58,120
into dislocation.
Think of it as future

427
00:25:58,120 --> 00:26:02,080
optionality, not dead weight.
The mistake most investors make

428
00:26:02,080 --> 00:26:05,360
is being too rigid.
In regimes like this, the

429
00:26:05,360 --> 00:26:10,440
ability to move is the edge.
Real estate, trim, utilities,

430
00:26:10,680 --> 00:26:13,120
avoid.
Anything rate sensitive is

431
00:26:13,120 --> 00:26:15,920
exposed.
If the Fed doesn't cut, these

432
00:26:15,920 --> 00:26:19,040
sectors lose.
If the Fed hikes, they bleed.

433
00:26:19,480 --> 00:26:23,760
Either way, they're trapped.
Long term, 2026 and beyond bet

434
00:26:23,760 --> 00:26:25,520
on alignment with the new
regime.

435
00:26:26,080 --> 00:26:29,640
That means defense heavy AI,
cybersecurity, digital

436
00:26:29,640 --> 00:26:33,280
infrastructure.
It means energy security, not

437
00:26:33,360 --> 00:26:37,000
ESG sound bites.
It means gold for trust and

438
00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:41,080
onshoring ETFs for resilience.
And it means clarity, because

439
00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:44,080
cycles reward the prepared.
If you know what the world is

440
00:26:44,080 --> 00:26:46,520
shifting toward, you don't need
to predict every print.

441
00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:49,120
You just need to avoid being
caught with yesterday's

442
00:26:49,120 --> 00:26:52,400
portfolio.
If you want a shorthand bull

443
00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:58,600
scenario, gold NVIDIA SOXL base
case, UNH, Caterpillar, GLD,

444
00:26:58,600 --> 00:27:05,040
Palantir, Bear Playbook, cash,
SQQQQQ puts, and if the Black

445
00:27:05,040 --> 00:27:09,280
Swan hits physical gold, capital
preservation and hard commodity

446
00:27:09,280 --> 00:27:11,480
hedges.
We built this playbook from the

447
00:27:11,480 --> 00:27:15,560
forecast and if you want the
updated version every month, S&P

448
00:27:15,560 --> 00:27:18,880
and NASDAQ targets, upside
probabilities, macro triggers.

449
00:27:18,880 --> 00:27:22,720
It's live now at
financefrontierai.com.

450
00:27:22,960 --> 00:27:27,480
Top menu forecast page, clean,
free and yours to use.

451
00:27:27,840 --> 00:27:32,520
Subscribe to finance Frontier AI
on Spotify or Apple podcasts.

452
00:27:32,840 --> 00:27:37,120
Follow us on X for real time
financial intelligence, Share

453
00:27:37,120 --> 00:27:40,960
this episode with a friend and
help us hit 10,000 downloads to

454
00:27:40,960 --> 00:27:43,680
build the smartest macro
community online.

455
00:27:44,000 --> 00:27:48,400
We cover finance, AI, money and
mindset across 4 series, all

456
00:27:48,400 --> 00:27:51,400
grouped at
financefrontierai.com.

457
00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:54,240
And if you've got a story that
fits, we may pitch it in a

458
00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:57,240
future episode free.
If there's a clear win, win,

459
00:27:57,480 --> 00:27:59,400
just go to the pitch page and
take a look.

460
00:27:59,720 --> 00:28:03,880
And don't forget, sign up for
The Five Times Edge, our weekly

461
00:28:03,880 --> 00:28:06,640
newsletter packed with
asymmetric stocks, tactical

462
00:28:06,640 --> 00:28:09,240
strategies, and investor
psychology that works in the

463
00:28:09,240 --> 00:28:13,280
real world only at
financefrontierai.com.

464
00:28:13,600 --> 00:28:17,680
This podcast is for educational
purposes only, not financial

465
00:28:17,680 --> 00:28:20,360
advice.
Always do your own research and

466
00:28:20,360 --> 00:28:22,960
consult A licensed financial
advisor.

467
00:28:23,280 --> 00:28:28,400
Markets evolve, risks compound,
and no forecast, no matter how

468
00:28:28,400 --> 00:28:31,120
strategic, guarantees future
results.

469
00:28:31,440 --> 00:28:33,400
Manage your exposures
accordingly.

470
00:28:33,680 --> 00:28:37,440
Music in this episode, including
Not without the rest by twin

471
00:28:37,440 --> 00:28:41,560
musicom, is licensed under the
Creative Commons Attribution 4

472
00:28:41,560 --> 00:28:45,240
Point O license copyright
Finance Frontier AI.

473
00:28:45,520 --> 00:28:48,080
Unauthorized reproduction is
prohibited.